Boy, Some Things Sure Did Happen in Baseball Tonight

First off, the Dodgers managed to hit and run themselves into the first 4-6-3-2 triple play since 1972 (h/t: Rob Neyer):


Jim Thome blasted two homers for the Twins in their 9-5 win over the Tigers. Oh, the second one was his 600th:


And it would be remiss to not mention the one nearest to my heart, Freddie Freeman's walk-off single to put the Braves over the Giants, 6-5:

On Baseball Realignment

So realignment is suddenly in the news again, as rumors of the possibility have begun to surface.

The article cited above talks about having two 15-team leagues and eliminating divisions. This would be a radical departure for baseball, which has featured divisional play since 1969, and in addition would require a team switching leagues, which has only happened once in modern baseball, when the Brewers moved to the NL in 1998 to accommodate the expansion Rays and Diamondbacks. (Wikipedia actually says baseball at that the considered doing two 15-team leagues then, but ultimately decided not to due to various issues.)

Currently, baseball is organized into two leagues with three divisions each. This setup originates from expansion in 1969, when both leagues expanded from 12 to 14 teams and instituted two divisions of 7 teams each. Those divisions would remain in place until 1994. Since then, other changes have taken place due to further expansion, giving us our current format or 14 teams in the American League and 16 teams in the National League.

You may be wondering why there's still two separate leagues in the first place, which is another artifact of baseball history. Until 1999, the AL and NL were indeed separate organizations - hence why one league has slightly different rules than the other. That's why a generic term for the top level of professional baseball is the major leagues - the AL and NL together represent the two top level baseball leagues. This is in contrast to the myriad minor leagues and independent leagues. (As a side note, some consider the post-World War II Pacific Coast League the only modern third major league, but any notion of the PCL being on the same level as the as the AL and NL was squashed when the Giants and Dodgers moved west in 1954.)

So are there any problems with the current setup? Well, yes. One of the issues baseball has struggled with since realignment is the idea of the balanced schedule versus the unbalanced schedule. Currently, teams play an unbalanced schedule, which means that they will generally play teams within their division more than teams without. I know the Braves' schedule the best, so I'll use them as an example: they'll play most of the teams within their division 19 times this year, and most of the teams outside their division 6 times this year. (Remember, most teams play each other in 3 game series.)

There are pros and cons to each style. The nice part about the current format is that it places a strong emphasis on winning your division. There are 4 playoff berths in each league, 3 of which go to the division winners. The downside is that the wild card is then very wild, as a team's overall record will depend much more on the teams within their division. The balanced schedule fixes that issue, but then the divisions are just arbitrary splits because everyone plays he same schedule.

One way to settle this is at the heart of the current rumor, that is, just eliminate the divisions altogether and award playoff spots to the top four teams. There are problems with this proposal as well, though. To me, this raises the question of "why bother to have playoffs at all?" After all, if everyone plays each other 11+ times, I'd say you have a pretty good idea who the best teams are in each league at the end of the end of the season. (Of course, that doesn't seem to stop the NBA and NHL, where half of the teams make an entirely too long postseason after a reasonably long regular season.) Also, having divisions gives each team something to play for and "win" - after all, baseball is about the grind moreso than other sports, and home field does not confer nearly as significant an advantage, so what in reality is the difference between the top four seeds in a postseason tournament? Sure, the difference between the first and fourth place teams may be large, but the difference between each seedline is not going to be that great, so what is the incentive to try to build a team that wins the games necessary for first and the game necessary to win fourth? This plan could potentially ruin the regular season.

The other problem is with an odd number of teams in each league, you are also then forced to have an interleague series all year long. I don't really have an inherent problem with this, and this could be easily solved by not having anyone switch leagues. (Though, if you asked me, I would say the Brewers should switch back to the AL.)

Of course, is there any room for realignment and keeping divisions? Sure. Unfortunately, the ideal solution would be for each league to have 18 teams so each division could have 6 teams, but further expansion is almost certainly not on the table. I have some other ideas, that would probably involve massive league switching, but I think if more than one team switches league that also raises the taboo discussion of the designed hitter. Otherwise, we're just talking about trivial fixes, like having the Pirates switch to the NL East so they're in the same division as Phillies.

So what's going to happen? Well, nothing probably. But baseball fans love to talk about this stuff, and it makes for an interesting discussion as we try to predict what baseball will look like in the future.

So Right

This just feels so... so... so right:

Know Your Potential September 1st Callups

On September 1st, two important things happen involving major league rosters:

1. Players who are not on the 40-man roster at this time cannot be on the postseason roster.
2. Ballclubs are allowed to use anyone on the 40-man roster, effectively expanding gameday rosters by 15 players.

So, if you're like me, who are you likely to see suddenly appear on the bench or in the bullpen next week? Let's start with the pitchers.

• Tim Hudson (currently on 60-day disabled list) should be activated by the end of the month after a successful rehab start Sunday at AAA Gwinnett (6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K). Since he is not currently on the 40-man roster (due to being on the 60-day DL) someone will have to be designated for assignment to make room for him, and I'm not sure who's a candidate for that. So it's possible someone below may not make it up next Tuesday.
• Buddy Carlyle has been pitching in relief at Gwinnett, where he's allowed only two earned runs in 13.2 IP and a 21:1 K:BB ratio. While that is inline with his past minor league numbers his major league ratio (189:93) is less encouraging. He was DL'ed in May after being diagnosed with Type I diabetes and started a rehab stint earlier this month, so his return was probably a given anyway, but I can't say I've particularly missed him.
• Stephen Marek was brought up to AAA for about a month this summer before being sent back down to AA Mississippi, probably because he only pitched 5.2 innings, walked 7 guys (while only striking out 4) and gave up 5 earned runs. He was acquired in the trade for Casey Kotchman and projected to appear in the pen after a promising Arizona Fall stint last year, but even in AA he has struggled with his control (25:28 K:BB in 35 IP). In his last 10 appearance, he has walked and struck out 8 while giving up 11 hits while getting plenty of playing time over the past week or so, which suggests to me that the Braves may be trying to see if he's got anything or if he will be the casualty when Hudson is reactivated.
• James Parr has battled injuries all year (apparently, I can't find any detailed information) and is currently on the minor league disabled list. When he hasn't been on the DL, he's been okay, but there's not really enough data about him to make a definitive judgment.
• Todd Redmond has been starting for Gwinnett all year, going 9-6 with a 4.02 ERA and decent ratios except for a team-leading 19 HRs, though he also leads the team by far in IP.
• Jo-Jo Reyes has been doing his usual sort of Jo-Jo Reyes things at AAA Gwinnett, moving back into starting in early August. He's been decent but not great, basically.
• Luis Valdez has been Gwinnett's closer and except for one hiccup back on the 13th, he's been doing reasonably well, with 66 strikeouts in 65.2 IP and not a lot of walks. Provided he can get major league hitters out with similar frequency, he would let off some pressure on the very overworked back of the bullpen.

Now, the position players:

• Clint Sammons (C) has been doing his Clint Sammons thing at Gwinnett: catching baseballs, throwing base stealers out about a third of the time, and not hitting at all (.221 BA, 636 OPS). His callup to Atlanta will be useful, though, as it will let the Braves use David Ross more off the bench as pinch hitter in the place of Greg Norton.
• Barbaro Canizares (1B) saw some action earlier this year when he got to start 5 games at first but didn't really make the most of it. He's always been around a .300 hitter in the minors but has seen his power drop off at all leaves above A-ball.
• Brooks Conrad (2B) is an excellent name for a baseball player and he really made a splash when he was called up last month while the entire infield was on the DL. That's really about it, though, as his AAA numbers are much more mundane: .269 average, 791 OPS and 12 HRs.
• Diory Hernandez (SS) was with the big league club throughout most of the summer as a replacement for Omar Infante, where he didn't hit a whole lot, in stark contrast to his performance at Gwinnett where he sports a 439 OBP and a .364 average. Considering he got 93 plate appearances in the big leagues and only hit .141, we can assume that he's getting lucky at AAA or really unlucky in the majors.
  
• Brian Barton (OF) hasn't really been doing much of anything at AAA and at 27 years old, may be running out of time. He served as a pinch hitter/4th outfielder extraordinaire for the Cardinals last year and was traded for Blaine Boyer and hasn't been heard from since.
• Gregor Blanco (OF) has been playing everyday for Gwinnett but was sent down earlier this year after a disappointing stint in the majors to make room for Greg Norton. Perhaps it was telling that a relative unknown (Reid Gorecki) was called up when Nate McLouth was DL'ed instead of Blanco.
• Brandon Jones (OF) is still searching for the power production he lost somewhere on the trip from Mississippi to Richmond. Once projected to crack the starting outfield in the majors, he future is in doubt. He had a cup of coffee back in late April/early May and got a handful of hits and not much else.
• Nate McLouth (CF, 15-day DL) is currently on the disabled list due to an unhappy hamstring. As seemingly the only person on the team who can steal a base, the Braves anxiously await his return.
• Jordan Schafer (OF) recently had the cast on his left arm removed and plans to resume swinging a bat soon. The Braves hope the guy they originally wanted to start in CF for them will be back at some point. I like to think the long-term plan for the OF involves Schafer in center, with McLouth in right and a platoon in left next year with that spot eventually occupied by Jason Heyward.

Speaking of Mr. Heyward, he was recently invited to the Arizona Fall League along with fellow Braves mega-prospect Freddie Freeman. If the Braves really want to, they could add these guys to the 40-man roster in time for September and let them get a cup of coffee, though they may not for arbitration reasons. Nonetheless, since his promotion to AA, all Heyward has done is hit, with a 1046 OPS in 151 at-bats (though this may be enhanced somewhat by 4 triples). Freeman has been much worse since his promotion to AA in late June, as his average has fallen off 40 points (and his slugging is worse). At their current rates, Heyward is probably a lot closer to the majors than Freeman is.

Update: Jordan Schafer will have surgery on his injured wrist, which I would guess means a trip to the 60-day DL. They may use this as a chance to do a simple swap for Hudson, but it could get more interesting than that. Stay tuned.

Bronson Arroyo and the Very Bad Analogy

I've been wanting to write some college football articles and whatnot to get back into the swing of things, but this struck me as so unabashedly unintelligent I had to say something.

USA Today has an article about how Bronson Arroyo takes supplements that aren't on baseball's approved list. My opinion? He has hasn't tested positive yet, so he's probably fine as long as he's not taking actual PEDs. However, his particularly poor choice of an analogy at the end of the article, well:

"[Taking the supplements] might be dangerous," he says, "but so is drinking and driving. And how many of us do it at least once a year? Pretty much everybody."

Look, I don't particularly care what you do to yourself. But I would guess"drinking and driving isn't as common as he thinks, and to say something like that raises some interesting questions about his own driving behavior. At any rate, it's an unbelievably stupid thing to say, even if there weren't a slate of high-profile athletes involved in DUI incidents every year.

A Travesty in the Making?

I know the All-Star voting is mostly a popularity contest, but this is ridiculous:

McCann, who has made the All-Star game in his first three seasons, is fourth among catchers with 416,149 votes. He trails the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina (629,007), the Brewers’ Jason Kendall (471,557) and the Astros’ Ivan Rodriguez (423,369).

The one knock right now against McCann may be that he doesn't qualify due to time on the DL with eye issues, but nonetheless among catchers with at least 100 ABs he blows away the rest of the league in averages and is tied for 4th in home runs. I've copied some statistics below:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	OPS
Y. Molina	154	.286	.353	742
J. Kendall	140	.207	.299	563
I. Rodriguez	144	.264	.305	750
B. McCann	107	.318	.422	936

Kendall is pretty much washed up, so his presence on the list is a complete mystery. At any rate, with statistics like that McCann should make the team as a reserve. Baseball people seem to realize that McCann is probably the best catcher in the National League, even if the fans don't.

Joe Morgan Apparently Does Not Wear Shoes

Generously transcribed by Will:

Will: q: "how do you tie your shoes, joe?"
Will: "well, i haven't really seen enough of them to say... i mean, there's so many styles of shoes out there... sneakers, pumps, loafs, sandals... i just have to say that i think that if they have shoelaces, they can probably be tied"

In short, it's best just not to agitate Joe Morgan by asking him questions, especially questions about shoes.

There Goes Another Piece of My Childhood, Part 2

For most of the 90's, the Braves's "Big 3" was commonly thought of as Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.

In time, of course, the group aged and separated for various reasons. All are (for the time being) still in baseball, but the "era" of the Big 3 is definitely over.

Much less exalted was the quintet of announcers TBS employed for most of the 90's: Skip Caray, Joe Simpson, Pete van Wieren, and Don Sutton. They're listed in the order they were paired in, and this is important because when the Braves were still on TBS the pairs often switched from TV to radio (and vice versa) in the middle of the 5th inning. Skip and Pete were the play-by-play guys, with former ball players Joe and Don providing the color analysis.

This arrangement gradually died earlier this decade, as TBS let Don Sutton go (he's now stuck doing color for the Nationals). Also a factor in Don leaving was TBS taking in former Cubs play-by-play announcer Chip Caray, who was (in)famously let go. With Chip on-board, TBS gradually began reducing TV time for Skip and Pete, though fan demand eventually was able to bring Skip back.

The Braves were sold by AOL/Time Warner and TBS, eager to acquire those lucrative playoff games, agreed to MLB's demand to stop showing Braves games nationally, presumably to sell more MLB Season Ticket packages. The Braves's TV rights were bought up by FOX for syndication only throughout the South, and they only brought Joe Simpson with them. Skip got to keep doing games that were still on WTBS and its offspring, WPCH (Peachtree TV) before his departure earlier this year.

Despite these factors, I was still just a little surprised today to see that Pete was hangin' them up. Yes, I know that he says it wasn't because of any of those items I listed above. At any rate, this is a tremdous loss for broadcasting in Atlanta.

It's hard to quantify how much losing two play-by-play guys really means to me as a Braves fan. I've watched so many games in my short life it's probably safe to say I've listened to them more than anyone else outside my immediate family. Growing up, I would watch every game possible and if I couldn't watch it I'd try to listen to it. (As far as I know, the Braves still have the most extensive radio network of any baseball team. Heck, they even have an affiliate in the Virgin Islands.) On my drives to and from Tech each August and May I would look-up ahead of time which radio stations had the game on my route just to make sure I caught it. On Wednesdays when the games were on FSN (and before they got the current announcers) I'd sometimes even try to listen to the game on the radio.

It baffled me when I saw that Skip was not on the ballot for this year's Ford C. Frick award, and next year if neither Skip nor Pete are finalists I will really start to wonder what's going in the minds of the panelists and voters.

Skip Caray Dies at 68

I wrote the below over on a different forum, but I think it sums things up well. Various tributes are over the AJC but I'm too lazy to link them right now.

A truly unfortunate day.

I grew up listening to Skip as I'm sure many did. After moving to the West Coast last year I've heard much less of him, of course. The real Skip Caray lived on radio, where his irreverent humor kept me entertained on those Sunday afternoon drives to or from Atlanta.

"He will be missed", indeed.

I hope SportSouth does an appropriate tribute for him, even though he never worked for them. I'll miss it since I'm actually going to the Braves-Giants game tomorrow, but still.

Also blatantly stolen from whoever the AJC stole it from is this MP3 of Sid Bream's mad dash to win the 1992 NLCS. This is my earliest baseball and Braves related memory.

Braves at the Break: Part II

We finish our roundup with an examination of the pitchers, which I've divided into appropriate categories. Enjoy.

The Infirmary
All players in this section are on the Disabled List as of July 16.
Tom Glavine (SP)
As BP noted when discussing (ugh) Lance Cormier, the Braves did not resign Glavine for "his vivid memories of the Civil War." He made 12 starts before being shut down over a month ago, going 2-3 (5 QS) with a 4.85 ERA. He wasn't exactly lighting up the world, but he is better than some of his replacements. At the time, it is unknown if he will return for this season, and there are rumors that he was planning on retiring after this season.

John Smoltz (SP)
Smoltz is also mentioned in those retirement rumors. He had massive damage in his shoulder that required surgery and is out for the year. Statistically, he was wonderful in his first 4 starts: 3-1, 0.78 ERA, .179 batting average against, 495 OPS against. His 5th start on April 27th went poorly: 4 IP, 4 ER and a loss. He went on the DL after this with shoulder pain and was shut down for the rest of May. He attempted to make another come back as a reliever, being brought in to close against the Marlins on June 2nd. He was one out away from getting the save but blew when on a single to left. (The Braves managed to salvage the game, tying in the 9th and winning in the 10th.) The next day, Smoltz woke up and the pain in his shoulder was too much - had surgery a week or two later and was shut down for the season.
I'd said to anyone who'd listen at the beginning of the year that Smoltz's arm is like that ex-police car in the original Blues Brothers movie - it's just waiting to fall completely apart. I think Smoltz wants to pitch again, but it may ultimately be time for him to end his career.

Mike Hampton (SP)
Many are looking, for some reason, to Hampton to solve the Braves' pitching issues. (Note: the Braves largely don't have pitching issues - they have some bullpen issues, but it's safe to say that with the 2nd best ERA in the National League the Braves are not hurting for pitching - they are hurting for an outfield bat of some sort.) At any rate, he almost got back to the bigs earlier in the year but was scratched from his start with yet another injury. He started last night in the minors but was scratched after two innings. He was hoping to come back after the break, but who knows if that will ever happen at this point.

Rafael Soriano (RP)
The closer coming into the season, but has been something of an enigma injury-wise. He's got issues with his elbow, but repeated examinations have failed to find any actual damage. His appearances have been shakey, but he did garner 2 saves before having to go back to the DL again. No one knows when he will be able to return.

Peter Moylan (RP)
The loss of Moylan is probably bigger than the loss of any other Braves pitcher, excepting Smoltz. He's the kind of set-up man most teams drool over - super reliable, doesn't let inherited runners score, and doesn't let very many runners on (1.06 WHIP last year, .208 average against). The Braves continued to use him in this fashion and he even picked up his first save of the year in his last appearance on April 11. The next morning his elbow hurt and within a week he was out for the year.

Manny Acosta (RP)
This is one guy I don't particularly mind being on the DL. I have very little tolerance for bad relief pitchers (ask me about Chris Reitsma sometime ... actually, on second thought, don't—unless you want to be covered in spittle and bile). He was actually relatively good in April and May, with an ERA of 1.30 in 27 and 2/3 IP (with a .198 average against). Then the wheels came off. From May 31 to June 6, he made 4 appearances and couldn't do anything right. He ended up with 7 hits, 7 earned runs, 3 homers and a .583 average against in 2 IP. He got the loss 3 times in that stretch and in the game he didn't lose he did blow the save. Since then, he hasn't been as bad (13 and 2/3 IP, .265 average, 6 earned runs, but an alarming 10 walks to only 3 strikeouts), but those totals aren't great, or really even very good either. I don't really remember why he's on the DL, but again I don't exactly miss him.

Too Early To Tell
Julian Tavarez (RP)
I guess signing this guy is just the cool thing to do in baseball right now, or he really just wanted to go on the Braves history tour (his prior stops this season being Boston and Milwaukee). He made his only appearance July 8th in Los Angeles, allowing 2 walks, 2 hits, and a run in a third of an inning. The trigger was quickly pulled, but for the time being he's still with the team.

Charlie Morton (SP)
Morton hasn't pitched that badly, but he hasn't been great either. He's had two really bad games, but outside of that pitched relatively well in his other 4 starts and has gotten to 2-2 for his efforts. He's the Braves' 5th starter for the time being and this probably won't change unless Glavine or Hampton come back.

Vladimir Nunez (RP)
I don't have anything to say about this guy really. He made an appearance July 7 and got the Dodgers 1-2-3 in the 8th. He's been made the last couple of seasons, for what that's worth.

Jeff Ridgway (RP)
Same here. He made 4 appearances in June, pitched okay in a couple and badly in the other two, including a blown save on June 19. He hasn't made an appearance since then and was optioned to Richmond on June 21.

Phil Stockman (RP)
This guy's been up and down from Richmond a few times this year and last. The big Aussie righty throws hard but lacks control and has been unable to break into the regular bullpen rotation, appearing mostly in mop up duty. His stats aren't bad: 7 and 1/3 IP, 9 K, 4 walks, and a couple hits, no runs, and a great looking .087 average against. Guess Bobby Cox just doesn't like him, as he was sent down to Richmond on June 18th.

Mike Gonzalez (RP)
Made his first appearance of the year on June 18, where he got a save against the Rangers. Basically the Braves' closer now, though they haven't had much to close as of late. He's pitched 10 and 2/3 innings and has the kind of stats you like from a late inning guy: 6 hits and no walks (0.56 WHIP), 16 K and a .153 average against, though the 2 homers are worrying. Nonetheless, he seems healthy and made two consecutive appearances going into the break.

The Bad
Chuck James (SP)
Started off the year on the DL and went downhill from there. He made 6 starts, and allowed less than 4 earned runs only once. After a bad start on May 15 in Philadelphia he was optioned to Richmond to get his head on straight, and I haven't heard any talk of him coming back any time soon.

Chris Resop (RP)
A 1.4 WHIP is not very good. Resop made a lot of appearances in April and May (16) and allowed 16 hits, 10 walks, and 12 runs. He was designated for assignment in late May and hasn't been heard from since.

Blaine Boyer (RP)
I think Bobby Cox has been a pretty good manager over the years, but one thing that drives me crazy is how he sometimes gets attached to relievers. (Again, if you like hearing angry rants, ask me about Chris Reitsma sometime.) His path is pretty Acosta like, actually. He started off the year strong, and through June 4 he had a sub-1.00 WHIP and a .205 average against. Then he blew a save on June 6th and in 18 and 1/3 IP since then has a 4.91 ERA, 10 runs, and a .284 average against. He's been a little better in over the past week, but that's not saying much.

Jo-Jo Reyes (SP)
Jo-Jo is one of the handful of pitching enigmas on this team. On June 29, he pitched 7 innings in Toronto and only allowed a run and the Braves ended up losing 6-3. The start before, he went 2 and a third innings and allowed 4 runs. He hasn't been great, but he's probably not quite as bad as his record, either. Would probably be the 5th starter if the rest of the rotation were healthy.

The Decent
Will Ohman (RP)
As much as I like to use his last name for the bad pun lamenting his entering the game, he's actually been pretty good. He's also currently the only lefty in the bullpen (besides Mike Gonzales), and he's good against them (.141 average against with 21 strikeouts). Except for a June 20th disaster against Seattle, he's been pretty good as a setup guy as well and has made many appearances to that effect (as opposed to a situational guy).

Jeff Bennett (RP)
Long reliever from the pen and has also made 3 starts this year, though let's just not talk about those. He's been mostly decent from the pen but hasn't seen action since surrendering a couple of runs a couple weeks ago.

Buddy Carlyle (RP)
Mercifully not starting anymore and is also a long reliever. Hasn't had any major implosions so far this year - which is something you generally want when you're coming into the game in such situations. In 29 innings he's allowed 5 runs and no homers and might start seeing more work in the second half.

The Good
Tim Hudson (SP)
Hudson has been very good this year and deserves a lot better than 9-7. He has only what I would call two bad starts on the year. In 7 quality starts that resulted in losses or no decisions he pitched 47 and 1/3 innings, allowing 16 runs for a 3.04 ERA. The Braves scored more than 2 runs only twice in those 7 starts - converting the losses into wins over that span gets him to 12-4 before we even start talking about the no decisions. On the year, he's 8th in the NL with a 3.13 ERA, right behind...

Jair Jurrjens (SP)
Part of the Edgar Renteria trade with the Tigers, Jair has been better than expected, to say the least. He's got a 3.00 ERA and a 9-4 record, and has only 3 bad starts. (He escaped with two no decisions and a win, though.) The feather in his cap so far is the 8 inning gem he pitched in Toronto, where he allowed 3 hits and a walk.

Jorge Campillo (SP)
Jorge's been a pretty pleasant surprise this year. He got drafted into starting duty for a double header and May and has done reasonably well for himself since then. He's been slightly shakier on occasion, as he loves his big 12-to-6 curveball that he can sometimes leaves up in the strike zone. Considering the circumstances, there's little room to complain, though.

Conclusion
Well, this wraps out our look at the Braves through their first 95 games. I realize the look at the pitchers was somewhat less analytical, but we've been through a lot of them this year and I wanted to get this done before the second half actually started. Overall, I'll stick to what I said for the hitters - the Braves have scored a lot of runs, but they lack luck with their horrendous one-run records dating back to late last year. This can be attributed to several factors - shaky end-of-the-game solutions in the bullpen or shaky late-game hitting, but it does make one wonder when, exactly, the whole thing stop being attributed to merely luck.

Anyway, I'll be back soon with my final thoughts on college football schedules, most likely a couple weeks before the season starts. Later.

The Braves at the Break: Part 1

In this series, the plan is to take a look at the Braves and their players at the All-Star Break here at slightly past halfway in the season.

The Team
Overall record: 45-50 (.474)
Runs scored/allowed: 421/383
Expected record: 52-43 (-7)

Overall, this is has been a disappointing first half for Los Bravos. While suffering a litany on injuries to their starters, their main problem has been offense and bad luck. They should be well above .500 according to their runs scored/allowed and a few games closer to the top of the division. Their lineup, as we'll examine next, is not hitting that well as a whole, though, and especially in the outfield. The Braves have suffered some really bad luck - their record in one run games is astoundingly bad, and they have not won a one-run game on the road since last August.

For the examination of the individual players, we'll compare their current stats with Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections that were published at the beginning of the year. (Note: PECOTA adjusts for park factors and whatnot, and so may be incorrect for players that were not projected to be with the Braves back in January, though this mostly affects the utility players.)

Before we begin, "VORP" is "Value Over Replacement Player", that is, how many more runs valuable a player is over an replacement-level player at the same position. So Brian McCann is 36.2 runs more valuable than a replacement level catcher with the same percentage of the Braves' plate appearances. Since VORP is a counting stat, I've adjusted the projections for 95 games.

Position Players (starters listed first):

Brian McCann (C)
Projected: .281 AVG/.344OBP/.471 SLG (815 OPS), 19 HR, 17.4 VORP
Actual: .302/.377/.563 (940), 18, 36.2
McCann should have been a starter for the National League in the All-Star Game, but he lost out to the Chicago ticket. Nonetheless, he got the spot he deserved and will make his 3rd straight ASG. He's been one of the few bright spots offensively for the Braves and is exceedingly durable, especially for a catcher. Of course, the latter may have a lot to do with the former; his backup is the very bad Corky Miller (.093/.170/.163). McCann is especially doing well in terms of his power numbers - he almost has as many home runs at the break as he was projected to have all year. Not bad.

Mark Texeira (1B)
Projected: .295/.394/.547 (941), 32, 28.6
Actual: .271/.373/.484 (857), 17, 23.0
Everybody and their brother knows the Braves won't be able to afford the Boras-represented Texeira after this season, and so he's been at the center for many a trade rumor as the Braves continue to flounder in the division. He got off to a slow start, but this is not unusual for Tiexeira. He got traded roughly halfway through the year last year, which gives us a good comparison. With Texas he hit .297/.397/.524 with 13 HR. After the trade, he hit 17 HR and hit .317/.404/.615. The Braves, who whichever team he gets traded to, expect roughly the same kind of turnaround.

Kelly Johnson (2B)
Projected: .279/.375/.466 (841), 17, 21.1
Actual: .272/.346/.431 (777), 8, 14.3
Kelly continues to play a good second base, but his offense isn't where he or the Braves probably want it to be. Thankfully, the Great Kelly Johnson Leadoff Experiment is over - I maintained all along that he was not suited for this role, considering his low OBP for a lead-off man and good power potential. To give you an idea of what the Braves were expecting, though, his 14.3 VORP is still 4th highest on the team, but no where near the 33.1 he achieved last year.

Chipper Jones (3B)
Projected: .315/.410/.547 (957), 24, 33.5
Actual: .376/.472/.614 (1086), 18, 55.5
There's little I can say here that hasn't been said already. Though he's not above .400 anymore and has had a rough two weeks, he's still the best hitter in baseball so far this year. He will rightfully start at third in New York on Tuesday. Amazingly, he's actually slightly worse in terms of VORP than he was last year. Guess the rest of the NL got better third basemen, as the rest of his independent stats are still up.

Yunel Escobar (SS)
Projected: .287/.348/.402 (750), 7, 11.0
Actual: .286/.355/.383 (738), 6, 13.7
Escobar has been hampered over the last month by a shoulder injury, which is unfortunate for the Braves. While he hasn't been hitting like he did last year (not a surprise), he's still better than the cast of utility men tasked to take his spot. The Prospectus said that he should watch out for Brent Lillibridge, who struggled at the start of the year at AAA and has been filling in for Escobar the last couple weeks at short. (Of course, as I type this, Lillibridge hit his first big league home run Saturay night and was 2-4 on Sunday. Nonetheless, he really does need to finish the year in AAA.) They were right about his average probably falling off, though, has his batting average on balls in play (BAbip) is down by 50 points so far this year, to .314. (In other words, less of the balls he hits are falling in for singles.)

Matt Diaz (LF)
Projected: .297/.338/.466 (804), 11, 9.0
Actual: .250/.270/.311 (581), 2, -5.2
Diaz is not the greatest LF to walk the Earth. It was hoped he'd improved enough last year to break out of the platoon the Braves had been employing in left, but the evidence before he got hurt was not in his favor. He was 3-16 before he hurt himself sliding into a wall in foul territory in Milwaukee on May 27, and is expected to be back after the break.

Mark Kotsay (CF)
Projected: .258/.325/.358 (683), 15, 6.2
Actual: .279/.329/.394 (723), 4, 5.1
The Braves needed a new center fielder with the departure of Andruw, and they got one from the A's in exchange for head-case Joey Divine. The trade worked out for both clubs, as Devine has his head back in straight with the A's and Kotsay's doing about what the Braves expected him to. The thing is, the corner outfielders aren't doing a lot to make up for the lack of power in Kotsay's bat. He's fine defensively, but his back acted up again a few weeks ago and he missed a whole bunch of games, which the Braves expected but didn't really have an adequate answer for - Blanco moved from covering left to play center, and they forced former 1B/DH to play left. None of this helps the offense at all.

Jeff Francoeur (RF)
Projected: .284/.331/.474 (805), 22, 10.7
Actual: .234/.285/.375 (660), 9, -9.0
Francoeur has been struggling mightily at the plate this year, so badly that the Braves sent him down last week. Of course, the Monday after they did that they had to put 3 guys in the DL and so they recalled Jeff. Since being recalled he's played a little better, but it's too early to tell if he'll get back to form. Also, he's been hitting into some bad luck. His batting average on balls in play (BAbip) for his career is .305, .337 last year, and an astoundingly unlucky .262 this year. He's on pace to walk as many times this year as he did last year (and more than he did in 2006), and his home runs aren't that far off last year's total (neither are his doubles). That said, his slugging percentage his way off his career pace, which should be less affected by his BAbip than his OBP. As a result, his OPS+ is 76 right now (that is, he's 24% worse than an average RF), and he has a -9.0 VORP.

Gregor Blanco (OF)
Projected: .264/.355/.352 (707), 4, 5.5, 506 PA
Actual: .257/.356/.314 (670), 1, 2.4, 307 PA
As mentioned above, with all the outfield injuries Blanco has been playing more than expected for the Braves, filling in for both Diaz and Kotsay. He's hitting .271/.372/.684 versus RHP, which isn't great but will probably earn him continued playing time in a platoon with Matt Diaz once he returns. Overall, he's actually playing better than Diaz so far this year, and has played more, which makes the value of Diaz's return highly questionable unless he has a brilliant second half.

Ruben Gotay (PH/IF)
Projected: .261/.329/.408 (737), 5, 5.6, 228
Actual: .216/.310/.324 (634), 2, -1.6, 86
Ruben's mostly been used as a pinch hitter, something he doesn't do particularly well. Of course, his splits as a starter (9 games, .212/.278/.333) aren't much better. But that's sort of the breaks with light-hitting utility infielders, I suppose.

Greg Norton (PH/LF)
Projected: .242/.341/.394 (735), 6, 2.8, 223
Actual: .202/.298/.330 (628), 2, -3.0, 124
Greg Norton began the year with the Mariners. After appearing in 6 games as mostly a DH or a pinch hitter, the Mariners cut him despite him being 7/16 with 2 walks. Of course, in terms of percentages that looks great, which created the initial impression that the Braves were getting a good deal. He saw limited action in May, mostly as a pinch hitter and occasional first baseman, but Diaz's injury caused someone to think he should play in the outfield, which he had done 76 times previously in his 12 years. Depending on which defensive stats you like, he hasn't embarrassed himself, except at the plate. Since coming to Atlanta, he's had 226 plate appearances and has hit .202/.298/.330, which is bad no matter what position you play. He's actually on a bit of an upswing for the past few weeks - in his first 35 games (84 PA) he hit .178/.286/.288 but is .250/.325/.417 since then. Still no homers, though. I suppose this is the real utility of Diaz coming back - by any measure, we'd expect him to be better than Norton, and we can go back to having him be a questionably okay pinch hitting specialist.

Omar Infante (3B/LF)
Projected: .261/ .315/.401 (716), 6, 3.4, 252
Actual: .282/.344/.427 (771), 1, 4.6, 124
Infante, unlike the other Braves utilitymen, hasn't been forced into service as much this year. Unfortunately, he fills in for Chipper, which is a decided loss in run production for the Braves. They've also put in him the outfield a few (or rather, 14) times but it's not really his natural position, but he'll go back to being a pinch hitter/utility guy after the break for the reasons stated above.

Hopefully tomorrow, we'll take a look at the pitchers and wrap this thing up. Later.

Vindication!

I've been saying since the beginning of the year that Yunel Escobar should be leading off, since it was generally the only thing Escobar did better than Kelly Johnson last year.

So finally Escobar is leading off for the first time all season while Johnson is in the lineup. And lo and behold, he singled, stole second, and advanced home on another hit by Chipper. I don't really know about Mark Kotsay hitting second, but he has the hot hand right now and Johnson isn't, so I'll allow it.

Live Commentating: Braves @ Nationals

It's opening day, and I'll be here commenting on the activities. Join me in the comments below.

Opening Day!

Well, sort of. The season started last week in Japan, and most teams don't play a game until tomorrow, but tonight belongs to the Nationals and Braves at the opening of their new ballpark. Since I'm still waiting for Rutgers to announce their schedule (and if the rumors are correct, Kansas State also) the OoC Schedule Review will continue to be postponed. So while I enjoy the second half of Kansas-Davidson, let's talk a little baseball.

• One of the benefits of starting the season on ESPN is I guess they feel the need to talk you up. Jayson Stark is calling for the Braves to win the World Series. Peter Gammons says they'll make it there, and several other contributors say the Braves will win the division or wild card.
• Now I don't know about all that. I got my copy of this year's Baseball Prospectus the other day and I can't say enough about it. What I've mainly taken away from the Braves' section is what I thought anyway, and it's always nice to have someone confirm your gut feelings with data. Basically, it goes something along the lines of "if the rotation doesn't implode upon itself like it did last year these Braves have a real shot". Of course, the top 4 of the rotation looks like it'll be Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine, and Hampton. Yes, that Hampton. Smoltz and Glavine are old; the former will start the season on the DL, and the latter was horrendous at the end of last year. That said, when Smoltz is healty he should pitch well, which is something I'm not sure we can say about Glavine anymore.
• That said, something that caught my eye in Stark's article was that Teixiera represented a 60-run improvement for the Braves last year. That tells not only that Tex is good, but also that Scott Thorman and company were very, very bad at the 3-spot last year.
• As for the Nationals, the read on them seems to be "going in the right direction". Of course, BP wrote that before they cut John Patterson. So the Nats opening-day starter will be former-Brave-turned-Dodger-turned-Royal Odalis Perez. The Royals declined their option for him, which should tell you something right there.

Anyway, some thoughts on the NCAA tournament while I'm here:

• The thing that is annoying me the most is the NCAA's brilliant plan to continue to have the Sweet 16 and rounds thereafter in football stadiums. This year, they've moved the courts to the middle of the field so they can sell more seats in the football seats in the stadium. In a word, it's stupid. Most of the fans are so far away from the court that I doubt they can really see anything and, worse, it makes the arena really quiet. Take Houston versus Charlotte, for instance. The former was held at the Texans' stadium, while the latter was held in a basketball arena. Both featured large contingents of fans that were playing in the games. Which was louder? Charlotte, by far, because the games were being played in a dome designed for basketball! Probably a better experience all around for everyone.
• I'm going to ahead and post this even though there's less than a minute left, so I just wanted to make sure I mentioned that if Kansas wins it will be the first time 4 #1 seeds have reached the final four.
  

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

Before we get into the FOOTBAW, a little baseball aside.

So to watch Braves games I bought a subscription to mlb.tv, baseball's online service for out-of-market regional games. (This is where I give a hearty "f-you" to TBS for ending national Braves broadcasts; though I understand why it sucks that it happened when I moved to the west coast.) Though you can't get live video of post-season broadcasts (a hearty "f-you" to Fox, just on general principle because I don't like Fox - thanks for forcing a damn three day layoff between the end of the LCS and the World Series that may push the series into November) you can still get the live radio feeds. So I popped open the stream of the Red Sox home broadcasters about 10 minutes after game time to hear something to the effect of: "Beckett strikes out the side, we go to the bottom of the first."

"Oh snap," I thought, "if he's on tonight the Rockies are pretty much screwed." And he was on, but they didn't lose then and there.

Bottom of the first, the Sox's young leadoff hitter takes the 2nd pitch to straight-away center for a home run. Fenway erupts.

That's the precise moment at which the Rockies lost.

The Sox scored a few more runs. I turned it off around the 3rd inning because I had to go home, but the outcome of the game wasn't in doubt in my mind. So I wasn't surprised to find later that the final was 13-1.

The Rockies pretty much need to win tomorrow. The problem for them is, they probably won't and will head back to Denver down 2-0. I would be surprised if the series made it back to Boston at that point.

Anyway, now that I have a new idea for a post (how networks effect scheduling of games, or more accurately how they ruin them), let's go onto football.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. As a free bonus, we're throwing Thursday's and Friday's tilts as well.

Thursday
7:30: Boston College @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): This is one of the two big reasons to bother to watch football at all this weekend, other than that you should be watching it anyway. This the first of many of BC's potential stumbling block away games, one of two of the conference's toughest places to play. (They also make a visit to Clemson.) The big question is at quarterback. On the VPI side, the question is "Who will be the starter?" as their mobile freshman guy hurt his ankle last week versus Duke.
On the BC side, the question is "How will Matt Ryan fare against the VPI defense?" If their previous game against a "Tech" was any indication, he should do fairly well. The Hokies are actually ranked lower (40th, compared to 33rd) than the Jackets. Matt Ryan is definite NFL caliber QB who is not fazed by blitzing and can make pinpoint accurate throws into tight coverage. (His line: 17 TD, 6 INT, 63.2%.) The Hokies have the 17th ranked rushing defense, but it doesn't really matter because BC will pass first (the Eagles pass on 56% of their plays).
Meanwhile, the Hokies will desperately try to retool their offense with Glennon back at the helm. Glennon was benched for a reason: against ECU he led the offense to 17 points, and only 7 in the debacle at LSU. He did play well last week, but that was against Duke. Boston College boasts a pretty stout defense, including the best rushing defense in the country, allowing a downright meager 46.53 yards per game. Their pass defense isn't bad, either.
So, I guess in conclusion, I think the Hokies are going to have some real problems. If this game weren't in Blacksburg, it might not even be close, but I'm going to call for BC to remain undefeated in a tight game.

9:00: Air Force @ New Mexico (Versus): This is a sort of cool down game, sort like how you're supposed to "cool down" when you're done exercising. This is actually a pretty big tilt in the MWC - though BYU is stomping everyone in the conference, neither of these teams are bad and it could have an impact on their bowl situations (though I have Air Force not going to San Diego to avoid a rematch with Navy). The Air Force should win, though.

Friday
9:00: Boise State @ Fresno State (ESPN): Don't look, but the boys of The Valley (as opposed to those other valleys in California) are relevant in the WAC again after really brining the suck last year. 4-0 vs. Boise's 3-0, but I think what most people care about is that one of them beats Hawaii. I'll give Fresno the home edge.

Saturday
Noon:

• West Virginia @ Rutgers (ABC/Gameplan): I don't know why ABC is having these noon-eastern broadcasts this week, but whatever. At any rate, it's safe to say that this game is far more important for West Virginia than it is for Rutgers. WVU needs to have only 1-loss to stay relevant nationally (and more importantly, preserve my prediction that they go to the Rose Bowl). And I think they will - I think Rutgers is a good football team, but WVU is better.
  
• Colorado @ Texas Tech (Gameplan/ABC): See, I liked a few years ago when Colorado was terrible and bribing their recruits with strippers. Made it easy to "man, they are going to lose." And they did. And by all rights, they should. But Texas Tech is coming off a huge let down against Missouri, who blew out the Raiders 41-10. Yes, that's right, Texas Tech only scored 10 points. Neither of these schools is exactly on an uptick right now. I'm going to go ahead and pick TTU anyway, but be wary of an upset here.
  
• Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2): Big Ten yawnfest of the day. Michigan State wins; let's move on.
  
• North Carolina @ Wake Forest (Raycom/Gameplan): Okay, this isn't really much more exciting, but at least I nominally care about it. UNC will probably lose, though, adding yet another game to their series of close losses.
  

12:30: Mississippi State @ Kentucky (LF/Gameplan): Kentucky is coming off their loss to UF, but should find relief in the comfort of the arms of Mississippi State. Or I should say, that Miss. State will desperately be trying to get Andre Woodson and his receivers in their arms, because the whole tackling thing is essential in this sport. I guess what I'm trying to convey here is that it's rather unlikely they'll be able to do so and will lose pretty badly.

3:00: Southern California @ Oregon (FSN): I'm not entirely sure how this game escaped ABC's clutches (the scheduling for this weekend is wacky) but at any rate this is probably for the Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl berth, or in Oregon's case a chance to sneak their way back into the title game picture. (Provided neither team loses again, they could both make a BCS bowl, especially Oregon.) Anyway, I think Oregon is darn good football team, and more notably they did what they were supposed to do with Stanford (whipping them 55-31). This game is, to me, definitely in favor of the Ducks, but could be close.

3:30:

• Georgia vs. Florida (CBS): The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party kicks off once again in Jacksonville. I like to think of it as more as Georgia's yearly whipping at the hands of the Gators. As you probably know, UF has won all but two contests since 1990, and I don't see any reason why this season won't be different.
  
• Nebraska @ Texas (ABC/Gameplan): If sports message boards and more nerdy message boards intersected, they'd spawn memes like "lolnebraska" instead of "lolsony". Nebraska has lost three straight and all but fired their head coach. The word "quit" has been used a lot in conjunction with the word "team." In other words, Texas by at least 2 touchdowns. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the country is going to be subjected to this crap and it won't even be in HD. Either of the other two ABC contests will probably be more palatable.
  
• Clemson @ Maryland (Gameplan/ABC): So let's start with the ACC game. Clemson broke their two game losing streak to the ACC's Techs with a drubbing of Central Michigan. Maryland, meanwhile, was on the wrong side of Virginia's incredible lucky streak last weekend. That said, this matchup is important in the ACC's other division (my name for the division GT isn't in because I can never remember the stupid names) and for the ACC bowl pecking order. Clemson still has a lot of weapons, but they seem to forget what they are - in their loss to Virginia Tech, they got down 17-0 early and Cullen Harper threw 66 passes. Davis and Spiller had a combined 12 yards rushing, and whenever stuff like that occurs it's usually bad, bad news for the Tigers (same thing happened to a lesser degree against Tech). Provided Clemson avoids an early let down and runs the damn ball, I think they win.
  
• South Florida @ Connecticut (Gameplan/ABC): Since USF's soft, vulnerable underbelly has been exposed. And that vulnerable spot is the blitz, as Groethe apparently had "no hot reads" against Rutgers's rush. Meanwhile, UConn finds itself ranked and playing the most important game in its short football history. The still haven't beat anyone, though, and I doubt they will here.
  
• Minnesota @ Michigan (ESPN Classic): Michigan, by 3 touchdowns.
  

6:30: California-Los Angeles @ Washington State (FSN): UCLA can't decide if it sucks or not, and I don't think anyone would be surprised if they celebrated their victory over Cal by losing in Pullman. I mean, heck, the Cougars have more wins than Notre Dame does. That said, I'm taking UCLA here.

7:00: Kansas @ Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (ESPN2): I hate to say this, but I think KU is actually kind of legit. Look for them to prevail in College Station.

7:45: South Carolina @ Tennessee (ESPN): Whoops. So, uh, yeah. Vandy. And Alabama. Both these teams suffered terrible, terrible losses last week. While losing to Vandy is bad in and of itself for most SEC teams, getting basically blown out by one of your chief rivals (where does 'Bama rank on the Tennessee rivalry scale, anyway?) is probably worse. The calls for the head of Fulmer reach high. Whil they be able to recover? It helps them that South Carolina has pretty much no offense, but Tennessee has no defense. I expect the Gamecocks to recover and prevail.

8:00: Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): This is probably Ohio State's chance to lose before playing Michigan, and I'm sure the biggest Penn State fans this weekend may actually be in Pasadena. Penn State is a decent team, but Ohio State is good. This year, the Buckeyes haven't allowed more than 17 points on defense. This would mean more if they could beat a decent team, though. I think they will, for my previously stated reason that they need to be undefeated heading into the Michigan game for maximum season-ending chaos potential.

10:00: California @ Arizona State (FSN): And our last game of the day, Cal's last gasp of relevancy following their terrible loss to UCLA. That said, the Sun Devils face their first true test and I honestly thing the run ends here or next week at Oregon. I'll go ahead and take the Bears.

I had something to say here, but this post took forever, so I'm going to bed. Enjoy the weekend!

Exponentiation!

Will: you should totally round up a group of 25000 braves fans out there at work and road trip to any games we play out there, so you can make up for the opposite happening in atlanta
me: lol
me: I've met 1 other braves fan
me: I've met 2 people who actually care about baseball
Will: well, does he know 24,998 others?
me: well, maybe
Will: okay, well say he knows ten fans
Will: and each of those ten guys knows ten guys
Will: and each of those hundred guys knows ten guys
Will: and each of those ten thousand guys knows ten guys
Will: you've got 100,000 people
Will: piece of cake
Will: and say each of those 100,000 guys know 10 guys, and each of those million guys know 10 guys, and each of those ten million guys know 10 guys, and each of those hundred million guys know 10 guys, and now you've converted the entirety of earth's population plus about four billion people that don't exist into braves fans
Will: which means we might be able to get more than 30,000 of them to go to turner field during the playoffs

Braves at the Break

Figure I'd drop in a quick baseball post. The Braves are off again today and will resume action Friday night against the seafaring marauders of Pittsburgh.

• Los Bravos are currently 2 back of the Metropolitans (something about writing at 1:16 AM makes one not want to use actual names, I guess). As a fun exercise I decided to see how far back they were at this point in every season after the strike. The results, frankly, aren't terribly interesting. From 1995 through 2000, not only were they in first at the All-Star Break, in many cases they were already running away with the division. In 1998, they were 12.5 up at the break an the lead never went below 11 games. They steamrolled through the Cubs in the NLDS only to run into the Kevin Brown, Ken Caminiti, Jim "F@#%^&@#%@#" Leyritz and the rest of the Padres in the NLCS.
  Back to my original point, outside of this year the Braves have found themselves out of first 4 times since 1994: 2001 (1 back), 2004 (1 back), 2005 (2.5 back), and 2006 (13(!) back). So there's not really a lot to go on there.
• Unsurprisingly, Chipper Jones has been having the best year at the plate for the Braves when he's in. He's sport a healthy 1.011 OPS and .329 batting averages. Among year-to-date qualifiers, this puts him at 4th best in baseball:
  Top 10 Hitters by OPS
  1. Barry Bonds (1.101, SF)
  2. Alex Rodriguez (1.078, NYY)
  3. Magglio Ordonez (1.050, DET)
  4. Chipper Jones (1.011, ATL)
  5. Carols Pena (1.004, TAM)
  6. Prince Fielder (.996, MIL)
  7. David Ortiz (.990, BOS)
  8. Chase Utley (.972, PHI)
  9. Gary Sheffield (.970, DET)
  10. Miguel Cabrera (.969, FLA)
• As most of you know, Andruw Jones is not having a good year in any sense of the word. At the break, he's hitting .211 with a .720 OPS, and that's with the help of a good 3-3 game against San Diego Sunday night. That said, since June 26 he's hit 4 homers and gone 14-48 at the plate (.292 average) with a .968 OPS. Hopefully this is a good sign he'll get out of his funk and not a temporary burst of confidence. True to his style, he's appeared in every game this year and I would guess the 4 days off will help him rest up.
• Speaking of things that needed 4 days of rest, let's talk about the bullpen. 6 relievers already have more than 30 appearances, with Tyler Yates leading the pack at 42, including 5 straight games before taking the day off Sunday. In terms of effectives, Peter Moylan probably leads the pack with Rafeal Soriano close behind. (Mike Gonzalez was having a great year before he got hurt, though.)
  However, Bob Wickman scares me. I read an article at the beginning of the year calling him one of the most overrated closers in baseball. Now I'm starting to believe it. Submitted for your approval, here's some stats from this year and last:
  With Cleveland: 15 saves, 28 IP, 13 ER, 17 K, 11 BB (1.54 K/BB, 1.429 WHIP)
  With Atlanta: 18 saves, 26 IP, 7 ER, 25 K, 2 BB (12.5 K/BB, 1 WHIP)
  2007: 16 saves, 30 IP, 16 ER, 25 K, 13 BB (1.92 K/BB, 1.633 WHIP)
  So in these 3 half seasons, his walk totals are particularly alarming for someone who should not be allowing a lot of baserunners. A low WHIP ((walks+hits)/innings pitched) is also really important for a closer, and 1.633 is not low. His strikeout totals are also alarmingly low for a closer. In fact, of the the Braves relievers with 30 or more appearances, only Chad Paronto has less strikeouts. All this only appears good in relation to our situation before we traded for Wickman last year.
  All in all, if he stops allowing baserunners and gets back to the form he had in the second half last year we should be fine. Otherwise, count me on the Rafael Soriano bandwagon.
• So far, in 2 innings pitched, Joey Divine has allowed exactly zero grand slams! Let's hope he keeps it up.
• Hudson and Smoltz have pitched pretty well this year. Smoltz's shoulder, therefore, is a huge cause for concern. If he has to sit a month to heal the damn thing that's fine by me. We'll need it more in August and September. We desperately need a 3rd/4th reliable starter, but the market for them is bone dry.
  
• We seem to have solved our productivity issues at first base and left field. Willie Harris leads the team in on-base percentage (.419) and Saltalamacchia is light years ahead of Scott Thorman. Salty's still learning the ropes defensively (2 errors in 10 games) but he's just so much better offensively that I don't really care.
• Someday, I might understand why Chris Woodward has a job. Maybe.

Anyway, I'm tired. As for my overall thoughts, I rate our chances as decent. I think a good goal is to be within 2 games come August 7, when we go to New York for a 3-game series with the Mets, one of 3 remaining series with them for the rest of the year.

College football note: The excellent Sunday Morning Quarterback has an well-reasoned preview of Georgia Tech. You really should check it out - I'm a GT fan and I doubt I could write that in-depth of a preview on Tech.

"Sports That Could Possibly be Abbreviated 'Bball' for $500, Alex."

Immediately after getting home from work, some friends and I took in the 2007 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship Game.

It wasn't exactly a clinic. Ohio State looked lost most of the night and had trouble getting any sort of outside game that was desperately needed against Florida's zone defense. Unlike the game in January, the favorites came out on top this time around.

After the end of the night (and hence the lateness of these posts), I poetically segued from the end of one season to the beginning of another. I recorded the Braves' opener (10:00 am PDT) to view tonight and kept myself willful ignorant of the results.

What a thrill to be back into baseball. I never got into the groove last season - I left for Europe when the season was still young and came back to a team that was realistically out of the playoff hunt. I watched the remaining games, but without my usual zeal. As I watched yesterday's game, I found my baseball senses were still in great shape - twitching as though I were behind the plate calling the balls and strikes, cringing at the bad swings at fastballs best described as "on the same plane as the batter's eyeballs".

Some of the Braves looked a lot more ready for opening day than others. Particular examples that stand out are Edgar Renteria, Chipper Jones, and of course, Brian McCann. Chipper got on base 3 times, McCann was completely himself (i.e., the best young catcher in the National League), and Edgar hit the tying and go ahead home runs. Andruw looked like he was trying to hit the ball to Pittsburgh most of the time, and the bottom of the order after McCann looked completely out of sorts. (I still prefer Chipper batting 4th and Andruw batting 3rd, honestly.)

John Smoltz pitched well, but he was on the hook for the loss after the 6th. Getting him off the hook was Edgar, who took an 0-2 fastball from Brett Myers in the 8th and just belted out beyond the center field fence to tie the game.

The so-called "Big Three" relievers had an interesting debut today. Mike Gonzalez came on in the 7th and proceeded to watch Brett Myers on four straight and give up a double. He then found the strike zone again and struck out the next two Phillies (including Ryan Howard) and retired the side.

Wickman pitched the tied ninth and got two quick out before allowing a double. They opted to walk Howard this time (one of the cases where I agree with that call) and got Utley to hit pop-up into foul territory that was corralled by Chipper.

Kelly Johnson coaxed a lead-off walk in the 10th, and after failing to get a bunt down, Edgar decided to take the next pitch into the right-center field bleachers. A perfect bottom of the inning by Chad Paronto later and the Braves secured the 1-0 start to the season.

It was weird watching this - they showed occasional highlights from last season. Normally, I'd remember these, but it was a reminder this year that even though I tried to keep up online I really had no idea what was going on. What I knew even before I left, though, was how terrible the bullpen was. If this website existed back then it would probably have several posts dedicated to the so-called "reliever" by the name of Chris Reitsma, one of the few people I've ever truly hated. (He was that bad.) Needless to say, had he been pitching today, the Braves probably would've lost 7-2.

The funniest part was listening to the announcers skip around the topic, saying everything they could about the bullpen last year without out-and-out saying, "Boy, those guys really sucked." Here was the most damning factoid they presented: John Smoltz had a damn fine year last year at 16-9. He had 10 no-decisions, 6 of which were caused by blown saves, a stat the Braves led the league in last year. Yes, that's right, with competent relief, he could've easily had 19 or 20 wins. Considering neither Cy Young award winner last year had 20 wins, that's saying something. (Though perhaps it says more about the over-importance on a team-based stat for a pitcher's performance, but that's a post for another day.)

Anyway, it's April, so like the fans of every baseball team, I'm feeling optimistic about this season. Well, except for fans of the Nationals. They don't have much to look forward to.

Opening Day!

Another season, another year of listening to Joe Morgan's stupidity.