2018 World Cup Update: A Quick Survey of 2016 Results

So I haven't done one of these since last March, and in the interim, there's been a fair amount of qualifying going on. I've updated the status page so that we're current through last Tuesday.

As usual, let's go confederation-by-confederation and make some quick observations, since it's still too early to eliminate anyone.

AFC
In Group A, things are going pretty according to plan, at least in terms of the top three teams. However, the order may not be what you expect, with Uzbekistan currently in second with 9 points and South Korea in third with 7 points. Also, Iran leads that group with 10 points. They're four games in, so there's still six to go. I don't really expect Syria, Qatar, or China to make any late pushes, though one can continue to marvel at just how bad China is at men's soccer. They've got 1 draw (against Iran, at home) and 3 losses. I would not be shocked if they finished at the bottom of the group.

Over in Group B, it's a similar story. Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Japan lead the group with 10, 8, and 7 points, respectively. However, the United Arab Emirates are right there with 6 points. Behind there are Iraq with 3 points and a very woeful Thailand. (Seriously, if China's got anything going for them, it's that they probably won't be the first team eliminated from this round of Asian qualifying.) I expect the teams currently in the top three to finish in the top three, but it'll take some time to figure out how it'll shake out.

CAF
African qualifying finally got under way this month, however, after November the five groups of four won't resume until next August due to the African Cup of Nations next summer. So honestly, there's not much to talk about, but I'll mention two things.

• Egypt is in the same group as Ghana. Recall that it was Ghana that brutally (7-3 on aggregate) eliminated the Egyptians from their inspired run to the last round of African qualifying during the last World Cup cycle. They will play in Alexandria in November.
• Qualifying geeks will remember Cape Verde from four years ago, when in their last game in the second round of qualifying, they appeared to beat Tunisia 2-0, eliminating Tunisia. However, they fielded a player who was on a four game suspension due to a red card and related actions, so the game was awarded to Tunisia. Tunisia wound losing 4-1 on aggregate to Cameroon. This time around, Cape Verde started off with a 2-0 loss to Senegal.

CONCACAF
The CONCACAF fourth round concluded back in September, with no real surprises. The group winners were Mexico, Costa Rica, and the United States. The group runners-up were Honduras, Panama, and Trinidad and Tobago. Notable misses were Canada and Guatemala, which wound up a point short in their groups. 

The firth round, or Hexagonal, kicks off in about a month. I'll be in Columbus, Ohio at the time. In a stunning coincidence, the US will also play Mexico there at the same time. I'm looking forward to it.

That said, if I had to pick the qualifiers, I think Mexico, the US, and Costa Rica will qualify, with Panama in fourth. Honduras just hasn't been the same since their 2014 World Cup run. In addition to the Mexico game, the US will go on the road to Costa Rica the following Tuesday, so that'll be two very important games right away.

CONMEBOL
We're just past half way through the South American qualifiers, with 10 matches played and 8 to go. And boy howdy, the table is currently a doozy. Brazil is on top with 21 points, which makes sense until you remember that they've had an awful run of it since the 2014 World Cup and just fired their coach after the Copa America Centenario. Uruguay is in second with 20 points, followed by Ecuador and Colombia with 17. Okay, makes sense so far, but it seems like there's two teams missing. Well, Argentina is fifth with 16 points. Messi currently has 1 goal from the run of play. Paraguay is behind them with 15 points, and then finally the team that went into the start of qualifying as Copa America champs and then reconfirmed it this past summer, Chile, is in 7th with 14 points. They're 1-1-2 since qualifying resumed.

The matchdays for November look pretty bonkers. On the 10th, Chile plays at Colombia, Ecuador plays at Uruguay, and Argentina will visit Brazil. Five days later, you'll get Colombia at Argentina and Uruguay at Chile. Seriously, watch these games if you get a chance.

OFC
They'll actually play some games in November, but nonetheless if New Zealand loses any of them it'd be a shocking upset.

UEFA
Europe finally started qualifying back in September and we're three games in. Let's go over the groups real quick. Thanks to Gibraltar and Kosovo gaining entrance to FIFA, Europe now features 9 groups of 6. The top team qualifies directly, the top-eight runners-up are paired up and played-off for the remaining four spots from Europe.

Group A features France, Sweden, and the Netherlands. The Dutch are fresh off not qualifying for the Euros this past summer and aren't off to great that of a start here, sitting on a loss to France, a draw with Sweden, and a victory over Belarus.

Group B features Swizerland and Portugal. I don't anticipate any other team coming close here. Ronaldo scoring four goals against Andorra might be the most notable thing that's happened so far. Well, other than them losing to the Swiss.

Group C features Germany and some other teams. Right now Azerbaijan is in second with 7 points, but don't expect that to hold with Norway, the Czech Republic, and Northern Ireland in the mix. This is definitely a competition for second place, though.

Group D features Serbia, Ireland, and one of Euro 2016's darlings, Wales. However, the Welsh are off to a pretty disappointing start, drawing with Georgia their last time out.

Group E is a group in UEFA's qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. Montenegro is currently tied with Poland on 7 points for the group. Denmark is currently sitting fourth with just 3 points.

Group F features England, who are currently in the lead, meaning that English fans still aren't happen since they only have seven of nine possible points. (And even then...) Scotland is also there, but really the teams to look out for are Slovenia and Slovakia, which of course ignores the team actually in second right now: Lithuania.

Group G is Spain and Italy. There are four other teams, which are Albania, Israel, Macednia, and Liechtenstein, but let's be serious, this is about which of Spain and Italy gets to qualify directly for the World Cup.

Group H features an apparently fully functional battlestation in the form of Belgium, which has 9 points. That said, the rest of the group isn't much to look at . Greece also has 9 points, then there's Bosnia and Estonia, and, well, Cyprus and World Cup qualifying newbies Gibraltar. Hey, you guys wanted in, right?

Group I is our final group, and it will probably be pretty spicy. Croatia and Iceland are currently in the lead, but Ukraine and Turkey are right there. This one should be pretty wide open.

That's about it, for now. We'll wrap things up for the year after next month's games. Until then, back to our regularly scheduled college football programming.

What Does It Take to Advance At the World Cup?

Five points.

Since the current 32-team format was implemented for the 1998 World Cup, five points is dividing line between advancement and disappointment.

Some background: before the 1994 World Cup, two points were awarded for a win and one point for a draw. What happened? Well, the 1990 World Cup was basically the soccer equivalent of the 1968 baseball season: defenses were dominant and no one felt super inclined to score. To try to encourage more goals, the value for a win was increased to three points for 1994.

Since the tournament still had 24-teams in 1994, I decided to simply look at the data going back to 1998. Here are the results:

	Adv	%	Did Not	%	Total
0	0	0%	10	100%	10
1	0	0%	18	100%	18
2	0	0%	7	100%	7
3	1	5.56%	17	94.44%	18
4	11	47.83%	12	52.17%	23
5	15	100%	0	0%	15
6	11	100%	0	0%	11
7	16	100%	0	0%	15
9	10	100%	0	0%	10

So the takeaway is obvious: get five and you're golden. Of course, that still requires going undefeated. Four points is basically a gamble, especially since that's also the only score that has come down to goal differential.

You might be wondering: who the heck got three points and advanced? Chile in 1998. After drawing all three of their group stage games, they got demolished by Brazil 4-1 in the first knockout stage.

And finally, I was going to do a full day-by-day schedule run-down for various time zones, but there's already a better-designed website doing that for me. The only thing really lacking is TV info, but at least in the US you have a one-in-three chance of getting that right anyway (ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC).

2014 World Cup Update: Commentary and Selected Scenarios for 10/15

Editor’s note: this was my draft going into last night, but some stuff came up and I could not finish it. I just wanted to publish the work I did for posterity. A proper wrap-up post will come soon.

Lots of stuff is bound to go down on Tuesday. Let’s have a look.

CAF

Nothing will conclude in Africa on the 15th, with the return leg of all the matches taking place in November. That said, we can talk about the early results. (INSERT)

CONCACAF

The US has secured the top of the table going into their match against Panama. First, let’s talk scenarios.

Team	W	D	L	GF	GA	Diff	Pts
United States	6	1	2	12	6	+6	19
Costa Rica	4	3	2	11	6	+5	15
Honduras	4	2	3	11	10	+1	14
Mexico	2	5	2	6	7	-1	11
Panama	1	5	3	8	11	-3	8
Jamaica	0	4	5	3	11	-8	4

No matter what, Honduras can do worse than 4th place, so they have a spot in the inter-confederation playoff against New Zealand at least. Costa Rica already has a ticket to Brazil.

• Honduras can clinch a spot in the World Cup Final with a win or draw against Jamaica.
• Honduras can clinch with any Mexico draw or loss to Costa Rica.
• Mexico can clinch a spot in the World Cup Final with a win over Costa Rica and a Honduras loss to Jamaica. Mexico would also need to win by at least two goals.
• Mexico can clinch a spot in the Inter-Confederation Playoff with any win or draw.
• Mexico can clinch a spot in the Inter-Confederation Playoff with any Panama draw or loss to the United States.
• Panama can clinch a spot in the playoff with a win over the United States and a Mexico loss. Panama would need to beat the US by at least two goals. There are scenarios where Panama can prevail over Mexico if they finish with the same goal difference, provided Mexico does not overtake them in terms of total goals scored.

COMEBOL

Colombia clinched on Friday. The remaining three non-eliminated teams can do no worse than the Inter-Confederation playoff against Jordan. The remaining matches that matter are Chile vs. Ecuador and Uruguay vs. Argentina.

• Ecuador and Chile will clinch a spot in the Final with any Uruguay draw or loss to Argentina.
• Ecuador and Chile will clinch a spot in the Final if they draw against each other.
• Uruguay can only clinch a spot in the final if there is a loser in the Ecuador-Chile match and if they beat Argentina. In that case, it will come down to goal difference. Uruguay currently has a –1 differential, while Ecuador is at +5 and Chile is at +3.

2014 World Cup Update: Commentary and Selected Scenarios for 10/11

It’s that time again. In many confederations we’re now in the home-stretch of qualifying. So let’s go confederation-by-confederation as usual and breakdown what we’re looking at.

Before we begin, though, I have updated many of the resources on the site here, including the status of every member of FIFA and the “Everything” chart.

AFC

Last month, Jordan clinched advancement to the inter-confederation playoff by defeating Uzbekistan 9-8 in penalties after each side drew 2-2 on aggregate. It’s a disappointing result for the Uzbeks, as at one time they were leading their group and only lost out on qualifying directly on goal difference with South Korea. What will they be haunted by? The own goal in Seoul back in June that led to a 1-0 loss? Allowing Qatar to score before they realized that they needed goals, triggering a furious comeback but ultimately coming up short despite the 5-1 win? Or the two misses in penalties against Jordan?

CAF

Saturday and Sunday mark the beginnings of the final play-off matches for Africa. 5 ties for 5 spots in Brazil. The draw?

Cote d’Ivoire	Senegal
Ethiopia	Nigeria
Tunisia	Cameroon
Ghana	Egypt
Burkina Faso	Algeria

It’s hard not to root for Egypt, and not just because that means if they advance the US can’t lose to Ghana again. And it’s not the Bob Bradley revenge angle either. It’s because, and SI’s Grant Wahl explains, Bradley is the right man for the job, even after he was no longer the right man for his homeland.

CONCACAF

Costa Rica and the United States have clinched, and I still love watching these highlights from last month:

(I still get excited when I see the first Eddie Johnson header and see it get saved.)

So let’s look at the table and talk scenarios.

Team	W	D	L	GF	GA	Diff	Pts
United States	5	1	2	10	6	+4	16
Costa Rica	4	3	1	11	5	+6	15
Honduras	3	2	3	10	10	0	11
Panama	1	5	2	7	9	-2	8
Mexico	1	5	2	4	6	-2	8
Jamaica	0	4	4	3	9	-6	4

• Honduras will advance directly to the 2014 World Cup Final with a win and a Panama-Mexico draw. (This also means that Mexico and Panama would be able to do no better than qualify for the Inter-Confederation Playoff against New Zealand.)
• Jamaica is completely eliminated with any draw or loss.

If there is a winner in Mexico City, then they are in good position to try to catch Honduras on goals on Tuesday, though Honduras will play Jamaica next week so that may still be difficult. Of course, if Costa Rica is following the same philosophy as the US, then Hondurans should have their work cut out for them even at home. Nonetheless, there’s a good chance the US game against Panama on Tuesday will matter, which leads to the question: who will be this cycle’s Jonathan Bornstein? (Let’s also snicker a little about how I asserted that Mexico will qualify. Whoops!)

OFC

I’m pretty sure the All Whites just want to know where they’re going to fly to already.

CONMEBOL

I’m not going to put the table here, but what you need to know is that Argentina has qualified and tat Colombia and Chile have clinched at least a spot in the play-off. Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay have all been eliminated. This leaves 4 teams vying for the three direct spots, plus Venezuela for the play-off spot.

Scenarios!

• Venezuela will be eliminated if Ecuador-Uruguay is a draw.
• Venezuela will be eliminated if they lose or draw to Paraguay.
• Colombia will directly qualify with a win over Chile.
• Colombia will directly qualify with a win or draw against Chile and an Ecuador-Uruguay draw.
• Chile will directly qualify with a win over Colombia and an Ecuador-Uruguay draw.

UEFA

I’m just going to go group-by-group here.

Group A

• Belgium will directly qualify with a win or draw over Croatia.

Group B

Italy has already qualified, leaving a 4-way fight for second place. Unfortunately, having to take the ranking of the 2nd-place teams into account makes things too complicated for me to be willing to figure out. The teams in question are Bulgaria, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Armenia. I will say I’d be pretty crestfallen if my Danish soccer-playing doppelganger doesn’t make it to Brazil.

Group C

• Germany will qualify with a win or draw over Ireland.
• Germany will qualify with a loss or draw by Sweden against Austria.

Group D

The Netherlands have already qualified, leaving Hungary, Turkey, and Romania fighting for second.

Group E

• Switzerland will qualify with a win over Albania.
• Switzerland will qualify with a draw and an Iceland loss or draw to Cyprus.

Group F

• Russia will directly qualify with a win over Luxembourg and a Portugal loss to Israel.
• Israel will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Portugal.

Group G

Both Bosnia and Greece have 19 points, so neither can clinch today. However, Bosnia is 15 goals better in the goal difference column, so Greece would need a ton of goals if they wound up tied in the end. Greece plays Slovakia while Bosnia gets Liechtenstein (and thus a really good chance for them to further pad that goal difference).

Group H

Only Moldova and San Marino have been eliminated in this group, so that means everything’s still in play. However, there is a scenario where one team can qualify directly.

• England will clinch with a win over Montenegro and an Ukraine loss to Poland.

Group I

Spain and France are both sitting on 14 points, however, Spain has played one less game. They will play that one game today against Belarus, however, a win does not allow them to clinch just yet.

2014 World Cup Update: As of September 5

Soon, a fresh new batch of qualifiers will kick off around the world. We preview where the remaining teams stand and the obstacles they face between themselves and Brazil.

 Other than the hosts, 4 teams have qualified, 87 are still in play, and 27 spots remain.

AFC
Asia's automatic qualifiers are now in place: Iran, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. But to determine their playoff qualifier against a South American team, the third place teams from their fourth round, Jordan and Uzbekistan, will kick off tomorrow. The games will take place Friday and Tuesday, and the winner on aggregate advances to the aforementioned playoff. Considering that they lost on a goal differential tiebreaker to South Korea, Uzbekistan should be the favorites. (The Jordanians sported a -9 goal differential to Uzbekistan's +5.)

CAF
As you might've seen in the post on what's needed to advance, there's plenty of action on the last day of the CAF 2nd Round. Groups C, G, and H are settled though: Cote d'Ivorie, Egypt, and Algeria are all through to the third round, which will kickoff in October. Those three teams will join all the other group winners, and they will all be paired off in home-and-home ties. The winner of each of those advances directly to the World Cup.

CONCACAF
There's actually a fun scenario I didn't list on the page for CONCACAF, but mostly because it requires a very specific set of circumstances: the US must defeat Costa Rica, Mexico and Honduras must draw, and Panama must lose or draw against Jamaica. It's complex because you can't do the "add future points to current points", you have to take the remaining schedules into account. (For instances, if Costa Rica wins out after losing to the US, then it's not possible for Mexico win out, etc.)

Of course, that's unlikely to happen. Jamaica has earned zero points in road games this round, and managed only a 1-1 draw at home with Panama. Mexico will be (well, they should be) desperate to hold serve at home against Honduras, though it's not inconceivable Mexico will remain the same punchless team they've been most of this year and only manage a draw against what is likely to be a bunkered-in Honduras.

CONMEBOL
The top four teams currently are Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile. Argentina has clinched at least a spot on the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, but they don't play Friday so as far as I know they cannot clinch yet. The top four lead the 5th place team, Uruguay, by 5 points, which is comfortable but not yet insurmountable. They also have a winnable game against Peru on Friday that should allow them to keep up with the top 4 for now. Tied with Uruguay though are the surprising Venezuelans, who are seeking their first ever trip to the World Cup.

UEFA
The European picture lacks a great amount of clarity, despite most teams having four or fewer matches remaining.

The clearest is perhaps Group A, where Belgium or Croatia will make it past the first round, but since they are sitting on 19 and 16 points, respectively, it's not clear who will come in first yet. Belgium seems to be the obvious candidate, undefeated so far in group play, but they still have to go on the road to Zagreb in October.

Though no one has been eliminated yet in Group B, Italy a slight edge as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic fight for second. If Italy can hold serve against Bulgaria at home on Friday, then they can start to get a little bit of separation.

Germany is close. They have 5 wins, 1 draw, and no losses in group play so far and have a 5 point lead over Austria. The real battle in Group C is the fight for second, as Austria, Sweden, and Ireland all sit on 11 points, so things could get pretty interesting come October.

The Dutch are running away with Group D, holding a 7 point lead over Hungary. Hungary themselves are only a point ahead of Romania. The fight is probably for second in Group E as well. Switzerland has a 4 point lead, but 4 points is all that separates second from fifth.

Group F is a tossup. Portugal (14), Russia (12), and Israel (11) are all within three points of the lead, a situation made all the more interesting when, back in August, Russia lost a snow make-up game to Northern Ireland. All three should win their matches Friday, meaning the real action starts on Tuesday when Russia plays Israel.

It's tempting to go with the chalk in Group G, where Bosnia has 16 points (and a +20 goal differential), Greece has 13 points, and Slovakia has 9. But I would say don't count out the Slovaks, who made the Sweet 16 in South Africa.

Group H proves looks can deceiving. Montenegro is topping the group with 14 points, but they've played one more game than England (12) and the Ukraine (11). Also on Friday, England and the Ukraine get winnable matches against minnows, while Poland at least stands a chance against Montenegro.

Everyone thought Group I would be a two-horse race, especially since those horses are the reigning champions and France. And, well, that's pretty much the way it's played out, but right now the Spanish are only up by a point. The difference in the group could be Spain's win over France back in March.

That's that! Don't forget that ESPN will be streaming a boatload of qualifiers online, so be sure to catch them.

2014 World Cup Update: Dispatches from Abroad

After Sunday's action, we have one more matchday to go this month, and it'll be a doozy. But first, some stats. 88 teams are still in play for the World Cup Finals and 114 have been eliminated outright. Entering this month, there were 118 teams still in play.

CAF
First off, special congratulations to Egypt and Bob Bradley. This entire World Cup cycle has been marred by the violence in the country, and yet they cruised through their group, winning all five of their matches outright and clinching advancement to the next round of CAF's qualification. The Pharaohs clinched Group G. Elsewhere in Africa, Ethiopia, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, and Algeria clinched their groups. I'll take a look at the remaining groups as we get closer to September.

One other thing, you see some wacky scorelines sometimes in international football, but this one made me scratch my head.  4-1 based off three penalties, the last coming 8 minutes into added time? Also conveniently Gabon's goal differential is now zero? And it was at home? Huh.

AFC
The last day of the AFC's 4th Round is Tuesday, and both groups are still in play. In Group A, South Korea, Iran, and Uzbekistan are all fighting for the top two spots. South Korea currently tops the group with 14 points, Iran has 13, and Uzbekistan has 11. South Korea will play Iran and Uzbekistan will play eliminated Qatar. So that's where it gets interesting. South Korea advances to the World Cup with any win or draw with Iran. There is also a scenario where they can lose and still advance as long as Uzbekistan does not win by at least 6 goals. However, the match is at home for the Koreans, so a win or draw should be achievable. They did lose in Iran 1-0 though.

While South Korea is sitting pretty, but Iran is less secure. With a draw, they can still be tied by Uzbekistan, which is where we start getting into goal differential numbers. They will likely be hoping for Uzbekistan to lose or draw against Qatar, but a) the game is Tashkent b) the Uzbeks already beat Qatar on the road and c) as mentioned above, Qatar is eliminated. If Iran loses to South Korea, that opens the door for Uzbekistan to clinch with a win. If Uzbekistan wins and Iran draws South Korea, then the Uzbeks need to beat Quatar by at least four goals to win the tiebreaker. Whoever winds up in 3rd place will play the 3rd place team from Group. So speaking of which...

Japan has already won Group B and Iraq has been eliminated, leaving Australia (10 points), Oman (9 points), and Jordan (7 points) in play for 2nd and third. The Socceroos cannot finish any worse than third, but they play their final game in Sydney against Iraq, so they will be looking for the clinching win. So let's talk about Oman and Jordan for a second.

Oman and Jordan play each other, but the match is in Amman. Jordan, is the weaker side here: they are 2-1-4 with a -10 goal differential, while Oman is 2-3-2 with a -2 goal differential. Oman won their first match 2-1. That said, Oman will get at least third place with any win or draw. Jordan must have a win in any scenario to advance. If they do win, then they will place third if Australia wins or draws against Iraq, and will get second if they can make up the 14 points of goal difference between them and Australia if the Aussies lose to Iraq.

If Oman beats Jordan and Australia loses or draws against Iraq, then they will get 2nd place (and, again, advance directly to the World Cup). If they draw and Australia loses, then goal difference comes into play again. There's 6 point of goal difference between the two sides.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd bet on South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Australia advancing, with Oman and Iran facing off in the 5th Round for the right to place a South American team for a spot in the World Cup.

CONCACAF
Both Mexico and Jamaica have Tuesday's match day off, since that match was moved to June 4th to accommodate Mexico playing in the Confederations Cup. No one is on the hook to be eliminated yet, but Jamaica is already in trouble and Panama could really use at least a draw on the road against Costa Rica.

2014 Wold Cup Update: Selected Scenarios

One resource I've relied greatly upon in my World Cup pages is the listing of matchday scenarios on Wikipedia. Unfortunately, Wikipedia editors found this information and decided that no one can have nice things and shut it down. This leaves me in a bit of a lurch, but fortunately at least in some cases we're far enough along to look at some specific scenarios for the next matchday only.

AFC
The top two teams in each group advance directly to the World Cup, while the 3rd place teams have a play-off for the Intercontinental Playoff.
Group A

• If Iran loses to Lebanon, then South Korea or Uzbekistan can clinch a spot in the World Cup with a win over the other

 Group B

• Japan has clinched.
• Iraq will be eliminated if they lose to Japan and Australia or Jordan defeat the other.

CAF
Each group winner will advance to the 3rd round, where they will play a home-and-home series against another group winner.
Group A

•  Ethiopia can clinch a spot in the 3rd Round with a win over South Africa.

Group B

• Tunisia can clinch a spot in the 3rd Round if Sierra Leone draws with Cape Verde
• Tunisia can also clinch with a draw and a Sierra Leon loss
• Tunisia can also clinch with a win over Equatorial Guinea

Group C

•  Ivory Coast can clinch with a win or draw against Tanzania

Group D

•  Zambia can clinch with a win over Sudan and a Ghana loss to Lesotho

Group E

•  Congo can clinch with a win or draw over Burkina Faso

Group F

•  Nigeria can clinch with a win over Namibia and a Malawi draw or loss to Kenya

Group G

• Egypt can clinch if Guinea loses or draws with Zimbabwe
• Egypt can also clinch outright with a win over Mozambique

Group H

•  Algeria can clinch with a win over Rwanda and if Mali loses or draws with Benin

Group I

•  Togo will be eliminated if they lose to the Democratic Republic of the Congo or if Libya defeats Cameroon or if Cameroon defeats Libya
• Congo DR will be eliminated if they lose to to Togo and Libya or Cameroon defeat the other

Group J

• Liberia will be eliminated if they lose to Senegal

CONMEBOL

• Argentina will qualify for the World Cup with a win over Ecuador

2014 World Cup Update: June 4th

World Cup qualifying starts up again this June. So let's take a quick look around the world to see what happened in February and what's at stake over the next few weeks.

AFC
The AFC Fourth Round will conclude this June. Japan will play Australia with a direct World Cup berth on the line, having failed in their attempt to clinch last March by losing 2-1 to Jordan. Provided Japan wins or draws against the Socceroos, they will be the first team other than Brazil to qualify for the World Cup. The other four teams in the group (Australia, Oman, Iraq, and Jordan) are all within two points of each other, so Group B could come down to the bitter end. Currently, Australia has played only five matches (along with Iraq; everyone else in the group has played 6) so they will have 3 games to get their house in order and qualify directly.

Group A leaders Uzbekistan and South Korea will be unable to clinch directly on the 4th, but with wins they will be able to on the 11th most likely.

Overall, I would say my favorites to make it out of Group A are Uzbekistan and South Korea with the winner of the 4th's Iran-Qatar match coming in third. In Group B, I like Japan and Australia to top the group with Jordan coming in third.

CAF
While as of the next match no one in Africa can clinch advancement to the play-off, the next match could do the trick for most teams. For instance, with two winnable games against Botswana and South Africa, Ethiopia could clinch in June. Tunisia is in a similar position in Group B. In Group C, the Tanzia-Ivory Coast match on the 16th will likely determine the group. Unfortunately in Group D leaders Zambia and Ghana will not meet until September, so we may have to wait unless one of them stumbles in June. Congo has all but clinched Group E, having gone undefeated and unscored upon so far. Group F is far murkier, with no country having more than 1 win, so that may go to the wire. Group G is home to perhaps the best story in international soccer this World Cup cycle, Bob Bradley's Egypt. They currently lead the group by 5 points and could clinch in June. In Group H, Algeria and Mali are neck-and-neck, as are Cameroon and Libya in Group I. Finally, Group J has no clear leader right now.

So the short version of the Africa story: check back after June 8.

CONCACAF
After the March games, the Hexagonal saw no shortage of controversy. The US currently sits in a three-way tie for 2nd, and is currently third in the group based on goal differential. Mexico is currently 5th, having played 3 punchless (scoreless in two) draws.

Mexico gets back into the action on the 4th due to their appearance in the Confederations Cup later this month. The rest of the confederation is back on the 7th. They play Jamaica, which is likely the worst side in the group. If Mexico can't find their mojo against the Reggae Boyz, then they will be in real trouble against Panama and Costa Rica in their next two matches.

Even with three games per team this month, it's unlikely anything will be decided until September.

OFC
Not much news here. New Zealand clinched back in March. All they get for their trouble, however, is a home-and-home matchup against the 4th place team from CONCACAF.

UEFA
The closest anyone is coming to really running away with their group so far is Germany in Group C, where they lead their fellow German-speaking brethren from Austria by 8 points.

Each group in UEFA gets to attempt to set their own qualifying schedule (unless they can't agree). This leads to some situations like in the aforementioned group C where Germany won't even play at all on either for the FIFA matchdays in June and is off until September. Here are the what are likely to be some of the more interesting matches from Europe:

• Group A: group leaders Belgium and Croatia won't play each other directly, but if they win they can eliminate all the other teams in the group.
• Group B: Italy is undefeated (4-1-0) but only leads the group by 3 points over Bulgaria, unfortunately, they don't play each other.
• Group C: Germany is running away with the group, but three countries are tied for second with 8 points each: Austria, Sweden, and Ireland. Austria and Sweden will play each other on the 7th
• Group D: The Dutch are currently enjoying a 7 point lead over Hungary. This is also likely to be a group where the battle for second is the most interesting part. Unfortunately, this group will play no matches until September.
• Group E: No one is running away with the group, but at the same time it is not super-interesting either. None of the top teams will play in June.
• Group F: Russia, Israel, and Portugal are locked in a tight battle for the two spots at the top of the group. Russia and Portugal will play on the 7th.
• Group G: Bosnia is currently topping the group, but only by 3 over Greece. Nonetheless, it will be a feat for one of the world's newest international teams to qualify for the World Cup.
• Group H: Speaking of newly minted countries and their soccer teams, Montenegro is still leading England in this group by 2, thanks in part to their draw back in March. They're back in action in June, and will attempt to gain some separation against Ukraine.
• Group I: In the "Spain, France, and Everyone Else" Group, it, well, pretty much is Spain, France, and everyone else. Unfortunately, neither the world champions or the French will be playing in June, with just Finland and Belarus playing each other home-and-home.

 Perhaps after the 7th I'll do an update. We'll see! Until then, enjoy the return of international socer!

2014 World Cup Update: Where We Stand

As 2013 gets underway, I figured it's high time to take a look around the world and see where everyone stands as competition resumes in North America on Wednesday (and everywhere else in late March). So we'll start close to home first, and then we'll take a stroll around the world.

CONCACAF
Starting Wednesday is the final phase of CONCACAF qualification, known in English and Spanish alike as the Hexagonal. The six teams in question are the top-two teams from each 3rd round group. To review, those teams are (in order of their FIFA ranking/ELO ranking): Mexico (15/7), the United States (28/27), Panama (46/37), Jamaica (58/72), Honduras (59/45), and Costa Rica (66/42).

To be blunt, Mexico and the US should qualify. That's not to say there won't be drama, however. Last time around, the US lost 3-1 at Costa Rica, for instance. There was also the really annoying tendency to give up early goals. At El Salvador, the US was down 2-0 in the 72nd minute before rallying to for the draw. The US went down 1-0 early at home against Honduras. The one time they did manage to score with in the first ten minutes was at Mexico, when Charlie Davies stunned the Azteca crowd to put the US up 1-0 in the 9th minute. The Mexicans tied 10 minutes later and finally broke through in the 82nd minute to secure the US's only other loss. In their next four games, other than a 1-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago, the US was losing at some point in the contest. Perhaps none wound up being bigger than the last two games. The US surrendered a goal almost immediately after the half to go down 1-0 at Honduras with qualification on the line. Conor Casey came out of nowhere to become Man of the Match, as he scored in the 50th and 66th minutes to put the US up 2-1, and had an assist on Landon Donovan's clincher in the 71st minute. The US ended up winning 3-2 after getting lucky with a missed Honduras penalty in extra time.

Perhaps the most dramatic moment ever in CONCACAF qualification occurred four days later in Washington, DC. Mexico and the US were already through to the World Cup. Mexico drew against Trinidad and Tobago earlier in the day, giving the US a shot to top the group with a win. The teams that cared about the results this day the most, however, were Costa Rica and Honduras. Costa Rica had 12 points at the time and Honduras had 10. In order to avoid a tough intercontinental playoff game against a South American team (which ended up being Uruguay, not exactly an easy match) Honduras needed to beat El Salvador and needed the US to draw or win against Costa Rica. The US decided to go for the points and started their full-strength lineup, however the team struggled throughout the match and surrendered two goals in quick succession in the 20th and 23rd minutes. Micheal Bradley finally broke through in the 71st minute, but it looked like the US (and Honduras) would fall short. The 90th minute came and 4 minutes were put on the board. Finally, with the referee liable to blow his whistle at any second, the US were given a corner kick. Robbie Rodgers kicked it, and Jonathan Bornstein instantly became a national hero in Honduras as he headed the ball into the net in what would be noted in the box score as the "90+4" minute. It looked something like this:

I still remember watching the footage from Honduras on Youtube later. First was the audio feed from the Honduran radio guys, who were still on air providing updates as they got them. (The Honduras game had been over for awhile at this point.) In the clip, you hear what sounds like someone shouting from the entrance to the room "Goal Estados Unidos!" followed by "Goal Estados Unidos?" "GOOOOOAAAAAALLL ESTADOS UNIDOS!!!!!! GOOOOOAAAAAALLLLLLLL" Other clips included people celebrating the streets, many with Honduran flags but also several waving American flags. Even though he scored with his forehead, the Honduras football federation asked for Bornstein's cleats. It was the first time the country had qualified for the World Cup since 1982.

Other than that, things weren't great in Honduras then (Sports Illustrated international soccer writer Grant Wahl got mugged when covering the US's away game there in 2009), and they're a hell of a lot worse now. San Pedro Sula is possibly the least safe city on the planet right now (it currently has the highest per capita murder rate in the world), which probably has a lot to do with the game will start at 3PM local time on Wednesday. Of course, it probably also doesn't hurt that it will be a very balmy 90 degrees at kickoff, either. In addition to the heat and security situation, the US has the other worries that traditionally come with qualifying in Central America. Hostile fans throwing anything and everything at the players (though the one upside of the Estadio Olimipico in San Pedro Sula is that the stands are relatively far away from the field), an around-the-clock party may be continuously occurring outside the team hotel, rather questionable playing surfaces, and sometimes even more questionable officiating. The US will be trying for three points, but don't be surprised if in the end we have to settle for one.

In Mexico City, El Tri will be starting off with Jamaica. This shouldn't present much challenge for the high-flying Mexicans, which makes it even more imperative for the US to get a result at Honduras. Rounding out the first set of games is Panama-Costa Rica. The Ticos just won the Central American Cup and Panama came in fifth. Most sources I've read indicate they're a little weaker side than they were four years ago. They may have some issues on the road in Panama but I think they could still get three points.


CONCACAF is the only confederation playing in February, as the 6th is actually a FIFA friendly date, not what's known as a "full international date". The one downside of this is that for full dates, national teams can recall their squads up to a week in advance of the games, whereas it's only a few days for friendly dates. For the Central American teams this isn't a huge deal. For Mexico it's becoming more a big deal, as 5 of their starting 11 are now based on Europe. For the US, though, it wouldn't be surprising if as many as 8 or 9 of the starting 11 are based in Europe. This means that they flew to Miami Sunday night, and flew on to San Pedro Sula Monday night. That's pretty rough. Add that into the other elements mentioned above, and fatigue could be a factor. One potential advantage could've been that the players will at least be in form, but Honduras were the runners-up in the tournament I mentioned above. For more on the calendar, you can view the FIFA match calendar here.

Let's take a quick look at the situation abroad, though I'll probably follow up with another post as we get closer to those dates in late March.

AFC
It probably wouldn't be a shock, per se, but I'd still be pretty surprised if Uzbekistan topped Group A in Asia ahead of South Korea. The Koreans will get to exact some revenge on them and Iran as they close out with them in June, but the current status quo is likely to prevail as South Korea faces Qatar and Uzbekistan faces last-place Lebanon in March.

Japan has a very good shot at being the first team (other than the hosts) to qualify for the 2014 World Cup. They currently have an 8 point lead over Australia, Iraq, and Oman in their group and need only to beat last-place Jordan to get in. (That, or draw with Jordan and hope the Aussies draw with Oman.) The game is in Amman where the Jordanians did shock Australia 2-1 last September, so it's not certain. Speaking of the Socceroos, "lackluster" might not be adequate to describe their campaign so far. Their only win has been over Iraq, where they had to come from behind after getting down 1-0 in the 72nd minute. Their best result could very well be a 1-1 draw at home with Japan.

CAF
Not much has changed in Africa, as most national teams have been playing in the Cup of Nations tournament the past few weeks. No World Cup qualifiers have been played since last June, and all teams still have four games to go in their qualification groups right now, so it's tough to really make any bold statements. The most interesting thing so far might be that Ghana isn't topping its group, but they still have plenty of time to rectify that.

CONMEBOL
South America has, of course, the most elegant qualifying format: a simple double round-robin between all the teams in the confederation. The top four go to the World Cup, and the fifth place team gets to beat play a team from the AFC. Currently Argentina tops the table with 20 points, three ahead of Ecuador. Colombia has also had a strong showing so far, going 5-1-2 (W-D-L). However, most of the teams still have 6 games to play, so there's plenty of action left before they wrap up in October.

OFC
With a win on March 22, New Zealand will qualify for the Interconfederation Playoff to be played in November against the 4th place team from CONCACAF. Even though they shockingly lost to New Caledonia last year, the All-Whites should be able to clinch it at home.

UEFA
Most teams still have six games to play, so again, there's no grand pronouncements to be made so far. We can note some surprises, though, such as Israel sitting in second in Group F ahead of Portugal on goal difference. It stands to reason that may change when the two sides face off in March, though. In Group G, Bosnia is currently tied for the lead in the group with Greece, and both are ahead of 2010 qualifier Slovakia. Exhibit A of why you can't really tell anything yet is Group H, though. Montenegro are currently topping a group that also has England, Poland, and the Ukraine in it. Don't get me wrong, they appear to be a quality side, but they've also already played hapless minnow San Marino twice. If you dislike potential chaos, though, Group I will make you happy, as Spain and France are currently topping the group.

That's all for now. Don't forget to check out the other resources on the sidebar on the right.

2014 World Cup Update: Taking a Look at the Draws

Last week, the draw for the qualifiers of the 2014 World Cup took place. This was after some regions held initial qualifying rounds among their minnows. Thanks mostly to action in Asia, the potential pool of teams is now down to 175 nations (from 207). For more details on the overall qualification process, see this post. You can also see the results for these rounds on my pages for Asia and North America.

So what to make of the draw? Let's break it down, region-by-region.

AFC

The Asian Football Confederation started with 43 teams and is now, after two rounds of competition, down to 20. None of the teams from the first round advanced to the third, and the only thing that could really be termed an "upset" is Indonesia defeating Turkmenistan.

Broadly speaking, a "group of death" is unlikely to occur even in the third round of this competition. There are 5 groups, and all the highest ranked teams remaining were therefore drawn into separate groups. However, there are potentials for surprises. The 2010 World Cup teams received byes to the third round, however, they were seeded according to their current FIFA Ranking. Japan, Australia, and South Korea retain their top spots as the highest ranked teams in the region, but Bahrain and North Korea each ended up in pots 3 and 4. (Taking their place in the top 5 seeds were Iran and China.)

The top two of each group advance to the fourth round, and all the top seeds will be sure bets to advance. The most interesting draw is probably Group E, with Iran, controversial 2022 World Cup hosts Qatar, and 2010 qualifier Bahrain, along with Indonesia.

In the fourth round, the remaining 10 teams are divided into two pools of 5. This seeding has not occurred yet, but whichever group only gets one of the top three teams will be much easier for the remaining teams to qualify out of. The top two teams from each group qualifies for the World Cup Final, and the 3rd place teams playoff for the right to advance to the Inter-Confederation Playoff. In contrast to 2010, the draw for the Inter-Confederation Playoffs already took place, and so in November 2013 the AFC will face off against the 5th place South American team. Generally, this is not a desirable matchup, but lots can change between now and 2013.

CAF

The Confederation of African Football has not begun qualifying yet. 52 nations will compete, with the teams ranked 29th to 52nd playing the first round. This first round begins in November, and features 12 home-and-away matches.

The winners of the first round advance to the second round, where all 40 remaining teams are divided up in to 10 groups of 4. The winner of each of these groups advances to the third round, where the 10 teams will be paired in 5 home-and-away matches. The winners advance directly to the World Cup.

I personally think this format is, well, not that great. It sounds more exciting I'm sure but I generally like table-based systems that reward the top teams over a longer period of time.

A quick overview of the groups shows the other problems with 10 groups of 4. For reasons I'm not sure I completely understand, Burkina Faso is the 4th ranked team in CAF, higher than Nigeria, Senegal, and Algeria. I have a hard time believing this, resulting in Group E likely being the most volatile group, with the other seeded teams being Gabon, Niger, and the winner of a first round matchup involving Sao Tome and Pricipe versus the Congo. Group A may also be tight, due to South Africa likely being vastly overrated.

UEFA

Europe has 53 teams competing for 53 bids. The qualifying format is simple. There are eight groups of six teams and one group of five teams. The nine winners advance directly to the world cup, and the eight best second place teams playoff for the remaining spots. (You may recall France's controversial win over Ireland in 2009, which took place in one of these playoffs.)

A quick rundown of each group:

• Group A: Croatia and Serbia duke it out for the top spot. Belgium and Scotland may make threatening noises. The minnows here are Macedonia and Wales, though at least the Wales-Scotland games may be interesting for a rare competitive match between the Home Nations.
• Group B: If Italy has regained any of their former mojo this group is theirs to lose. If not, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria all figure to make things interesting. Armenia and Malta (as in, the tiny island) round out the group.
• Group C: Zee Germans are probably locks to win this one, resulting in a knife-fight between Sweden and Ireland for second place. Austria is also a possibility. The Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan, not so much.
• Group D: 2010 runner-up, the Netherlands, should be able to take care of business, as should Turkey for second place. Hungary and Romania are the other two teams worth mentioning, but for the sake of completeness let's also point out the other two teams are Estonia and Andorra.
• Group E: This may be the tightest group on paper. Norway is the highest ranked team, but both Slovenia and Switzerland played in the 2010 World Cup. Three teams that could easily qualify, but again there are only two slots. The real victims here are probably Albania, Cyprus, and Iceland.
• Group F: Portugal and 2018 hosts Russia will finish in the top two, the only question is in what order. Israel is also in this group, probably sailing to a comfortable third over Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan, and Luxembourg.
• Group G: I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go according to seed. This has to be a dream draw for the Greeks, as they'll face Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithunia, Latvia, and Liectenstein.
• Group H: Tell you what: England had better win this group. However, there are some plucky teams vying for second and a possible upset in the forms of Montenegro, the Ukraine, and Poland. Also here is Moldova, and the national team from one of the world's smallest countries, San Marino.
• Group I: The current World Champions, Spain, are here. France is also, but luckily for them, the rest of the group is Belarus, Georgia, and Finland. 

You may've noticed that one group has one less team than all the others, so matches against the last place teams in the other groups don't count in determining the best group runner-up.

CONCACAF

Thanks to the US being here, this is probably the region I know the most about. 35 teams entered the competition, however, 5 teams have already been eliminated in the first round. The five winners and the other 19 teams ranked 7th through 25th are now divvied up into six groups of 4. The only one of these groups that is likely to not go according to see is Group E. Grenada is higher in the FIFA rankings but Guatemala trounced them 4-0 at the Gold Cup, and I would say from a subjective viewpoint is better overall.

The third round is where CONCACAF's big boys (Mexico and the US) enter, along with fellow 2010 World Cup qualifier Honduras, plus the next three highest ranked teams (Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Cuba). If everything goes according to seed (except for Group E), the three groups will look like this:

• Group A: US, Jamaica, Group E winner (likely Guatemala), Group F winner (Haiti)
• Group B: Mexico, Costa Rica, Group A winner (El Savador), Group B winner (Trinidad and Tobago)
• Group C: Honduras, Cuba, Group C winner (Panama), Group D winner (Canada)

Group C should be the most interesting of these three, unless the US or Mexico really screw up. The top two teams from each group then proceed to the fourth round, the a six team round-robin known as the Hexagonal. The top three teams automatically qualify for the World Cup finals, while the 4th place team plays a home-and-home playoff against the OFC qualifier (which will almost certainly be New Zealand).

CONMEBOL

South America's qualification is as simple as it gets. Nine teams play a round-robin series of home-and-home matches. The top four teams qualify for the World Cup, and the 5th place team will face the playoff winner from the AFC. Brazil, as the hosts, are automatically qualified and will not participate. CONMEBOL did not lose any slots though, so this is a great opportunity some of the weaker teams in this region to get to the promised land. The remaining 9 are: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezual.

OFC

Last, and frankly, least is Oceania.With the departure of Australia after the 2002 World Cup, this region is New Zealand and bunch of tiny Pacific islands. There are only 10 FIFA members in the region, and if New Zealand doesn't win the qualification tournament it would be a major upset. Anyway, the first round features the four lowest ranked teams (Samoa, Tonga, the Cook Islands, and American Somoa) facing off in a single round-robin tournament, with the winner advancing to Group A in the second round along with Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tahiti. Group B consists of Fiji, New Zealand, the Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea. This at the 2012 OFC Nations Cup, so this is also a single round-robin. Finally, in the third round the remaining 4 teams will be play a double-round robin with the winner playing the 4th place team from CONCACAF for a spot in the World Cup.

And there you have it. There'll be more news later this fall as more qualification rounds get under way, but after I update the AFC and CONCACAF pages I'll be focusing my efforts on American football. So until then.

The 2014 World Cup is Underway

Well, sort of.

Two weeks ago qualifying began for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. If you've paid any attention to the site at all the past few years, you may've seen the detail I paid to the qualifying rounds of the 2010 World Cup. In my opinion, that is part of what makes the tournament so great - it's not just a tournament of 32 teams, it's really a tournament that features nearly every FIFA member in the world - 204 out of 207, in fact.

For those unaware, I will first explain the qualification structure.

All FIFA members are organized into six confederations which roughly correspond the continents: CONCACAF (North and Central America), CONMEBOL (South America), UEFA (Europe), AFC (Asia), CAF (Africa), and the OFC (Oceania). For 2014, the bids are allocated thusly:

• UEFA: 13 bids (out of 53 entrants)
• CAF: 5 bids (out of 53)
• AFC: 4.5 bids (out of 43)
• CONMEBOL: 4.5 bids (out of 10; also Brazil qualifies automatically as hosts of the 2014 World Cup)
• CONCACAF: 3.5 bids (out of 35)
• OFC: 0.5 bids (out of 11)

All the whole number bids are direct entrants into the World Cup Finals - so UEFA gets 13 direct qualifiers, CONCACAF gets 3, and the OFC gets none. What are the half bids? The four half-bids will be contested in November 2013 for the final two spots in the World Cup. In a change from years past, this year on July 30th FIFA will draw which confederations will be matched against each other. (In 2010, the CONCACAF qualifier (Costa Rica) faced off against the CONMEBOL qualifier (Uruguay).)

Membership in the confederations is not fixed, and on occasion teams will move around. The two most notable examples are probably Israel (which switched from the AFC to UEFA) and Australia (which moved from the OFC to AFC prior to the 2010 World Cup cycle). The Israel move was for political reasons (the rest of the Middle East is in the AFC), and the Australia move was for competitive reasons (the only other sizable and competitive country in the OFC is New Zealand, the other countries are mostly remote Pacific micronations).

As you might've guessed, UEFA and CONMEBOL are the strongest confederations, and in fact no other confederation has ever produced a winner (or a runner-up, for that matter).

So, given that, how is the draw determined? Well, each confederation determines how to divvy up their bids. CONMEBOL's is the simplest: all nine teams (Brazil is in automatically as hosts) will play a home-and-home double round-robin, and the top four teams get the automatic bid. Others, however, are more complicated. UEFA will draw eight groups of six teams and one group of five, with the nine winners advancing directly to the World Cup and the eight runners-up contesting among themselves for the final four spots. That's still relatively simple, the other confederations have multiple rounds of tournaments.

One such tournament has already begun. In CONCACAF, Belize beat Montserrat 5-2 on June 15th, officially beginning the preliminaries of the 2014 World Cup. Unfortunately, four days later the Belize national football federation was suspended by FIFA, and unless the situation is resolved before July 10th the second leg will not take place (which would result in Montserrat going through automatically). The AFC will begin its qualifying tomorrow, however, with eight matches taking place. In fact, the AFC will be a veritable hub of World Cup activity over the next month, as the first and second rounds take place and the initial 43 teams whittled down to 20.

To help keep track of this action, I've created two sets of graphics that help visualize what is going on. First, for the AFC you can easily the first and second round pairings in every American's favorite tournament abstraction, the bracket. (Of course, this being soccer all pairings are home-and-home, so each represents two games and the winner is decided on aggregate.) I've also made one for CONCACAF. I've used images instead of tables here to help show the individual early match ups and also to facilitate inling these brackets elsewhere. I may do one for the other confederations, though the other confederations make use mostly of drawn-out round-robin tournaments. Also, CAF and the OFC won't begin their processes until next year, and the draws for these events have not yet taken place. (UEFA will start even later, as they are currently contesting their qualifiers for the 2012 Euro Cup.) I will update the brackets I've already made, of course, as action on the pitch warrants.

And speaking of "on the pitch", it's nice to be talking about FIFA and soccer again in that context, isn't it?