Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 5

It’s week 5, do you know where your bowl predictions are?

• In the BCS, I don’t think anyone’s going to catch Auburn or Oregon unless something happens in regards to Cam Newton. The Cal game was likely an aberration for the Ducks, and they should be able to get back on track.
• But what happens if either loses? That’s very interesting, to say the least. It looks very likely now Boise will catch and pass TCU, so I have put Boise in the Rose. But remember, only one of these teams is guaranteed a BCS berth. I don’t think the BCS would want to face the backlash of excluding TCU if they go undefeated. Also, I don’t know what options looks all that more appealing than TCU to the Orange or Fiesta bowls. Basically, the last two BCS slots (presumably the Sugar will take whichever team loses the Big Ten’s Rose Bowl tiebreaker, right now I have this as a 1-loss Ohio State) will be down to Pittsburgh (or whoever wins the Big East), TCU, a 2-loss Nebraska (or whoever the loser of the Big 12 title game is), and a 1-loss Stanford. The Orange may just fall on the sword and take Pitt or whoever that’s going to be, leaving the Fiesta with a Big 12 team that just lost its title game, a Stanford fan base that isn’t known for its size or willingness to travel, or an undefeated TCU.
• I’ve been projecting 3-4 extra teams the past weeks, which bodes well for the possible doomsday scenarios. However, with attendance down all over college football this year I think some of these bowls are going to lose a ton of money this year, which may allow us to get back to a reasonable number. May.
• Let me rant about the Big East again. It’s mid-November, and most teams haven’t played more than 4 conference games. This makes it such a pain to predict, especially when you have the only obvious frontrunner go and lose to UConn. That said, Notre Dame being relatively dreadful this year will at least let them send a team to the Champs Sports Bowl. Probably.
• Army clinched their berth in the Armed Forces Bowl last weekend. They will likely not play a Mountain West team there, but they could (I should probably check the payouts on that). For now I’ve slotted SMU there, since it’s being played at their home stadium.
• For my fellow Georgia Tech fans, it’s not looking good. Basically, here’s how I view it: beat Duke and UGA and we could get up to the Music City. Go 1-1 and probably end up in Shreveport, with an outside shot of ending up in San Francisco, though as bad as GT’s travel reputation is at least we’re south of the Ohio River, unlike Boston College.
• The Alamo Bowl paid up the big bucks to take the slot formerly occupied by the Holiday Bowl, and boy, if they get the Stanford-Nebraska matchup I’m predicting there could be some fireworks in that game.