Friday, June 10, 2016

Copa América Centenario Group C and D Scenarios

Group C


TeamW-D-LGFGAGDPoints
Mexico (A)2-0-051+46
Venezuela (A)2-0-020+26
Uruguay0-0-214-30
Jamaica0-0-203-30
  • Uruguay and Jamaica are eliminated.
  • Mexico wins the group with any win over or draw with Venezuela.
  • Venezuela wins the group with a win over Mexico.
Group D

TeamW-D-LGFGAGDPoints
Argentina (A)2-0-071+66
Chile1-0-13303
Panama1-0-126-43
Bolivia0-0-224-20
  • Bolivia is eliminated.
  • Argentina can clinch first place in the group with any win over or draw with Bolivia.
  • Chile and Panama will advance with any win over the other.
  • Chile or Panama can still win the group if Argentina loses to Bolivia and can make up either the 6 or 10 goal deficit, respectively.

Thursday, June 09, 2016

Copa América Centenario Group A and B Scenarios

It's that time again. I dusted off a program I wrote for last year's Gold Cup to compute group stage scenarios. Of course, the problem with the program I wrote is that I wrote it in probably the dumbest way possible, so it only calculates results ranging from 4-0 to 0-4 and up to 4-4 draws. In soccer, this suffices most of the time, but then you have teams like the US winning 4-0 and Brazil winning 7-1 and it just messes things up.

We'll do the best we can, but I'll refrain from posting the graphs this time.

Tiebreakers
  1. Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches.
  2. Goal difference in all matches.
  3. Greatest number of goals scored in all matches.
  4. If two or more teams are tied:
    1. Greatest number of points obtained in the matches between the tied teams.
    2. Goal difference in the matches between the tied teams.
    3. Goals scored in matches between the tied teams.
    4. Drawing of lots.

Group A

TeamW-D-LGFGAGDPoints
Colombia (A)2-0-041+36
United States1-0-142+23
Paraguay0-1-112-11
Costa Rica0-1-104-41
  • Colombia has clinched a spot in the quarterfinals. They will clinch first place in the group with any win against or draw with Costa Rica.
  • The United States will advance to the quarterfinals with:
    • A win over Paraguay, or
    • A draw with Paraguay and any Costa Rica draw with or loss to Colombia, or
    • A draw with Paraguay and a Costa Rica win over Colombia by 5 goals or less.
    • See Costa Rica scenarios for more.
  • The United States can clinch first place in the group with a win over Paraguay and any Colombia loss to Costa Rica.
  • Paraguay will advance to the quarterfinals with:
    • Any win over the United States and any Costa Rica draw or loss to Colombia.
    • See Costa Rica scenarios for more, though note that in any case Paraguay must beat the United States to advance.
  • Costa Rica scenarios:
    • To have any chance at all, Costa Rica must beat Colombia by at least four goals.
    • If Costa Rica wins 4-0 and Paraguay wins 1-0 or 2-1, then Costa Rica will advance on Tiebreaker 3.
    • If Costa Rica wins 4-0 and Paraguay wins 3-2, then lots will be drawn.
    • In essence, if Costa Rica goes in a scoring barrage and wins by 5 goals or more, it will come down to them closing the goal differential between themselves and either the United States or Paraguay. In addition, if Costa does wind up with the same number of points, same goal differential, and goals scored as the United States, then they will lose out due Tiebreaker 4.1. Any such scenario with Paraguay results in the drawing of lots, due to their 0-0 draw.
Group B

TeamW-D-LGFGAGDPoints
Brazil1-1-071+64
Peru1-1-032+14
Ecuador0-2-02202
Haiti0-0-218-70
  • Haiti has been eliminated
  • Brazil will:
    • Clinch first place in the group with a win against Peru.
    • Advance to the quarterfinals with any draw against Peru.
    • Clinch first place in the group with a draw against Peru and any Ecuador win by less than 8 goals. If, for instance, Brazil draws 0-0 and Ecuador wins 8-0, then Peru will break the tie on goals scored (Tiebreaker 3), and this holds for 9-0 and 1-1, 10-0 and 2-2, and so on. If Brazil draws 3-3 and Ecuador wins 8-0, then lots will be drawn. If Brazil draws 4-4 and Ecuador wins 8-0, then Brazil prevails on Tiebreaker 3.
    • Advance to the quarterfinals with a loss to Peru and any Haiti draw with or win over Ecuador.
  • Peru will:
    • Clinch first place in the group with a win over Brazil.
    • Advance to the quarterfinals with any draw against Brazil and any Haiti draw with or win over Ecuador.
    • Advance to the quarterfinals if Ecuador wins by one goal over Haiti and Peru draws Brazil by at least the same number of Ecuador goals. 
  • Ecuador will:
    • Advance to the quarterfinals with any Brazil or Peru win and a win over Haiti.
    • Advance to the quarterfinals with any Brazil or Peru draw and a win by at least two goals over Haiti (this knocks out Peru on goal differential). (See above for what happens if Ecuador wins by 8 goals or more.)
  • If Brazil and Peru draw 3-3, 2-2, 1-1, or 0-0 and Ecuador beats Haiti 4-3, 3-2, 2-1, or 1-0, this will result in the drawing of lots between Peru and Ecuador.

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Copa America Centenario Readable TV Schedule

Date Team vs. Team Time (ET) Network Location Group
6/3 United States 0-2 Colombia 9:30 PM FS1 Santa Clara, CA A
6/4 Costa Rica 0-0 Paraguay 5:00 PM FOX Orlando, FL A
6/4 Haiti 0-1 Peru 7:30 PM FS2 Seattle, WA B
6/4 Brazil 0-0 Ecuador 10:00 PM FS1 Pasadena, CA B
6/5 Jamaica 0-1 Venezuela 5:00 PM FOX Chicago, IL C
6/5 Mexico 3-1 Uruguay 8:00 PM FS1 Glendale, AZ C
6/6 Panama 2-1 Bolivia 7:00 PM FS1 Orlando, FL D
6/6 Argentina 2-1 Chile 10:00 PM FS1 Santa Clara, CA D
6/7 United States 4-0 Costa Rica 8:00 PM FOX Chicago, IL A
6/7 Colombia 2-1 Paraguay 10:30 PM FS1 Pasadena, CA A
6/8 Brazil 7-1 Haiti 7:30 PM FS1 Orlando, FL B
6/8 Ecuador 2-2 Peru 10:00 PM FS2 Glendale, AZ B
6/9 Uruguay 0-1 Venezuela 7:30 PM FS1 Philadelphia, PA C
6/9 Mexico 2-0 Jamaica 10:00 PM FS1 Pasadena, CA C
6/10 Chile 2-1 Bolivia 7:00 PM FOX Foxborough, MA D
6/10 Argentina 5-0 Panama 9:30 PM FOX Chicago, IL D
6/11 Paraguay 0-1 United States 7:00 PM FS1 Philadelphia, PA A
6/11 Costa Rica 3-2 Colombia 9:00 PM FS2 Houston, TX A
6/12 Haiti 0-4 Ecuador 6:30 PM FS2 East Rutherford, NJ B
6/12 Peru 1-0 Brazil 8:30 PM FS1 Foxborough, MA B
6/13 Venezuela 1-1 Mexico 8:00 PM FS1 Houston, TX C
6/13 Jamaica 0-3 Uruguay 10:00 PM FS1 Santa Clara, CA C
6/14 Panama 2-4 Chile 8:00 PM FS1 Philadelphia, PA D
6/14 Bolivia 0-3 Argentina 10:00 PM FS1 Seattle, WA D
6/16 United States 2-1 Ecuador 9:30 PM FS1 Seattle, WA Q1
6/17 Peru 0-0 Colombia 8:00 PM FS1 East Rutherford, NJ Q2
6/18 Argentina 4-1 Venezuela 7:00 PM FX Foxborough, MA Q3
6/18 Mexico 0-7 Chile 10:00 PM FX Santa Clara, CA Q4
6/21 United States 0-4 Argentina 8:00 PM FS1 Houston, TX S1
6/22 Colombia 0-2 Chile 8:00 PM FS1 Chicago, IL S2
6/25 United States
Colombia 8:00 PM FX Glendale, AZ
6/26 Argentina Chile 8:00 PM FS1 East Rutherford, NJ